New 20-day Lows Top 2,000
By
Rennie on Wednesday, October 28th, 2009 at 10:19 pm
New 20-day lows closed well above the 2,000 level on Wednesday, signaling broad participation on the downside. Historically, readings this high have led to further weakness over the short-term. In the table below I’ve listed each instance over the last five years in which 20-day lows exceeded 2,000 for the first time in at least three sessions…
New 20-day Lows Top 2,000 First Time in Three Days
10/28/09… ???
07/08/09… Lower S&P close two sessions later
02/17/09… Lower S&P close one session later
01/15/09… Lower S&P close two sessions later
11/13/08… Lower S&P close one session later
10/24/08… Lower S&P close one session later
09/29/08… Lower S&P close four sessions later
09/05/08… Lower S&P close two sessions later
06/20/08… Lower S&P close two sessions later
06/10/08… Lower S&P close one session later
03/17/08… No lower close within next four days
03/03/08… Lower S&P close one session later
01/16/08… Lower S&P close one session later
01/04/08… Lower S&P close two sessions later
11/19/07… Lower S&P close two sessions later
10/22/07… No lower close within next four days
08/10/07… Lower S&P close one session later
07/24/07… Lower S&P close two sessions later
02/27/07… Lower S&P close three sessions later
06/08/06… Lower S&P close one session later
05/15/06… Lower S&P close one session later
10/12/05… Lower S&P close one session later
10/06/05… Lower S&P close two sessions later
04/15/05… Lower S&P close three sessions later
03/23/05… Lower S&P close one session later
08/06/04… Lower S&P close four sessions later
07/22/04… Lower S&P close one session later
05/07/04… Lower S&P close one session later
04/29/04… Lower S&P close one session later
Note that in 26 out of 28 cases, or 93% of the time, the S&P500 posted a lower close (below the setup day’s close) within the next four sessions, significantly above the 72% random chance in the same time frame. The failure of recent short-term buys and the momentum generated by Wednesday’s drop should lead to a bit of downside follow-through, suggesting a bounce on Thursday could represent a short-term selling opportunity.
New 20-day Lows Top 2,000
By Rennie on Wednesday, October 28th, 2009 at 10:19 pmNew 20-day lows closed well above the 2,000 level on Wednesday, signaling broad participation on the downside. Historically, readings this high have led to further weakness over the short-term. In the table below I’ve listed each instance over the last five years in which 20-day lows exceeded 2,000 for the first time in at least three sessions…
New 20-day Lows Top 2,000 First Time in Three Days
10/28/09… ???
07/08/09… Lower S&P close two sessions later
02/17/09… Lower S&P close one session later
01/15/09… Lower S&P close two sessions later
11/13/08… Lower S&P close one session later
10/24/08… Lower S&P close one session later
09/29/08… Lower S&P close four sessions later
09/05/08… Lower S&P close two sessions later
06/20/08… Lower S&P close two sessions later
06/10/08… Lower S&P close one session later
03/17/08… No lower close within next four days
03/03/08… Lower S&P close one session later
01/16/08… Lower S&P close one session later
01/04/08… Lower S&P close two sessions later
11/19/07… Lower S&P close two sessions later
10/22/07… No lower close within next four days
08/10/07… Lower S&P close one session later
07/24/07… Lower S&P close two sessions later
02/27/07… Lower S&P close three sessions later
06/08/06… Lower S&P close one session later
05/15/06… Lower S&P close one session later
10/12/05… Lower S&P close one session later
10/06/05… Lower S&P close two sessions later
04/15/05… Lower S&P close three sessions later
03/23/05… Lower S&P close one session later
08/06/04… Lower S&P close four sessions later
07/22/04… Lower S&P close one session later
05/07/04… Lower S&P close one session later
04/29/04… Lower S&P close one session later
Note that in 26 out of 28 cases, or 93% of the time, the S&P500 posted a lower close (below the setup day’s close) within the next four sessions, significantly above the 72% random chance in the same time frame. The failure of recent short-term buys and the momentum generated by Wednesday’s drop should lead to a bit of downside follow-through, suggesting a bounce on Thursday could represent a short-term selling opportunity.