A Higher Low for the NYSE TICK?

On Wednesday, the NYSE TICK recorded an intraday low below the -1300 level. Today, despite the sharp morning selloff, the low TICK reading stands at -1100. The table below lists all instances since 1998 in which NYSE breadth closed at least 3:1 negative and the NYSE TICK posted a higher low than the previous session…

NYSE Breadth 3:1 Negative, NYSE TICK Posts Higher Low
08/17/09… Higher SPX close two sessions later
04/07/09… Higher SPX close two sessions later
03/20/09… Higher SPX close two sessions later
02/23/09… Higher SPX close two sessions later
11/14/08… No higher close next 2-3 sessions
11/11/08… Higher SPX close two sessions later
11/06/08… Higher SPX close two sessions later
10/24/08… Higher SPX close two sessions later
10/08/08… Higher SPX close three sessions later
10/07/08… No higher close next 2-3 sessions
06/26/08… Higher SPX close three sessions later
06/11/08… Higher SPX close two sessions later
03/17/08… Higher SPX close two sessions later
02/29/08… Higher SPX close three sessions later
08/28/07… Higher SPX close two sessions later
08/15/07… Higher SPX close two sessions later
06/06/07… No higher close next 2-3 sessions
05/24/07… Higher SPX close two sessions later
04/15/05… Higher SPX close two sessions later
03/23/05… Higher SPX close two sessions later
01/04/05… No higher close next 2-3 sessions
05/10/04… Higher SPX close two sessions later
04/28/04… No higher close next 2-3 sessions
04/14/04… Higher SPX close two sessions later
10/07/02… Higher SPX close three sessions later
09/21/01… Higher SPX close two sessions later
09/20/01… Higher SPX close two sessions later
04/03/01… Higher SPX close two sessions later
03/14/01… Higher SPX close three sessions later
06/15/98… Higher SPX close two sessions later

Note that in 25 out of 30 occurrences, or 83% of the time, the S&P closed at a higher level 2-3 sessions later, significantly above the 63% at-any-time odds for a higher S&P close 2-3 sessions later in the same time frame. When institutional selling doesn’t expand on a solid down day, there’s a better than average chance of a short-term rebound.

Categories : Archived Intraday Commentary, Intraday Commentary

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