Implications of This Morning’s Gap Up Open

The fact that the market gapped higher for a second consecutive session has positive implications for tomorrow’s session. This runs counter to some of the short-term setups on the board, which have so far been proven wrong.  The last thirty times the front-month S&P futures contract opened above the previous day’s high on two consecutive sessions are listed in the table below, along with the S&P’s performance the following session. Note that in 24 out of the last 30 occurrences, or 80% of the time, the S&P closed higher the next day, significantly above the 55% at-any-time odds for a higher close one day later…

S&P Futures Open >Previous Session’s High Two Days
09/08/09… S&P500 ??? next day
08/24/09… S&P500 +0.2% next day
07/21/09… S&P500 -0.4% next day
07/15/09… S&P500 +0.9% next day
06/01/09… S&P500 +0.4% next day
05/07/09… S&P500 +2.4% next day
03/16/09… S&P500 +3.2% next day
12/31/08… S&P500 +3.2% next day
11/25/08… S&P500 +3.5% next day
10/14/08… S&P500 -9.0% next day (*)
05/14/08… S&P500 +1.1% next day
04/16/08… S&P500 +0.1% next day
04/02/08… S&P500 +0.1% next day
03/19/08… S&P500 +2.4% next day
01/25/08… S&P500 +1.8% next day
12/24/07… S&P500 +0.1% next day
10/29/07… S&P500 -0.7% next day
09/27/07… S&P500 -0.3% next day
09/19/07… S&P500 -0.7% next day
08/23/07… S&P500 +1.2% next day
06/01/07… S&P500 +0.2% next day
04/17/07… S&P500 +0.1% next day
04/16/07… S&P500 +0.2% next day
03/09/07… S&P500 +0.3% next day
08/16/06… S&P500 +0.2% next day
08/15/06… S&P500 +0.8% next day
06/30/06… S&P500 +0.8% next day
05/26/06… S&P500 -1.6% next day (*)
12/27/05… S&P500 +0.1% next day
11/18/05… S&P500 +0.5% next day
02/01/05… S&P500 +0.3% next day

Categories : Archived Intraday Commentary, Intraday Commentary

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