Five Days of Positive Breadth

Thursday is shaping up to be the fifth consecutive session that NYSE breadth has closed in positive territory. In recent years, five straight days of positive breadth has been a sign that buying power is near a short-term exhaustion point. In 28 out of the last 30 separate occurrences, or over 90% of the time, the S&P posted a lower close (below the setup day’s close) 3-6 trading days later, well ahead of the 65% at-any-time odds for a lower S&P 3-6 sessions later in the same time frame…

Breadth Positive Five in a Row
08/24/09… Lower S&P close five sessions later
07/24/09… Lower S&P close three sessions later
05/04/09… No lower S&P close in 3-6 sessions
03/16/09… No lower S&P close in 3-6 sessions
01/06/09… Lower S&P close three sessions later
11/28/08… Lower S&P close three sessions later
11/03/08… Lower S&P close three sessions later
07/22/08… Lower S&P close three sessions later
05/16/08… Lower S&P close three sessions later
04/04/08… Lower S&P close three sessions later
08/23/07… Lower S&P close three sessions later
07/03/07… Lower S&P close four sessions later
06/01/07… Lower S&P close three sessions later
05/07/07… Lower S&P close three sessions later
04/04/07… Lower S&P close four sessions later
03/23/07… Lower S&P close three sessions later
02/01/07… Lower S&P close six sessions later
01/12/07… Lower S&P close three sessions later
11/16/06… Lower S&P close five sessions later
08/30/06… Lower S&P close four sessions later
08/18/06… Lower S&P close three sessions later
03/16/06… Lower S&P close three sessions later
01/09/06… Lower S&P close four sessions later
12/14/05… Lower S&P close three sessions later
11/23/05… Lower S&P close three sessions later
06/15/05… Lower S&P close six sessions later
06/02/05… Lower S&P close three sessions later
02/16/05… Lower S&P close three sessions later
12/14/04… Lower S&P close three sessions later
11/15/04… Lower S&P close four sessions later

I’d also note that S&P futures have posted a fifth consecutive higher high on Thursday and appear set to close higher, a price pattern that often precedes a short-term top. The last thirty occurrences are listed below. Note that in 23 cases, or 77% of the time, the S&Ps posted a subsequently lower close 3-4 sessions later, significantly greater than the 54% at-any-time odds for a lower S&P 3-4 days later in the same time frame…

Five Higher Highs and S&P Futures Close Higher
08/25/09… S&P futures -0.6% four sessions later
07/24/09… S&P futures -0.3% three sessions later
07/01/09… S&P futures -4.3% three sessions later
05/08/09… S&P futures -4.3% three sessions later
03/17/09… S&P futures -1.4% three sessions later
01/06/09… S&P futures -4.8% three sessions later
05/16/08… S&P futures -2.3% three sessions later
07/06/07… S&P futures -0.7% three sessions later
07/03/07… S&P futures -1.1% four sessions later
03/21/07… S&P futures -0.3% four sessions later
10/26/06… S&P futures -0.7% three sessions later
08/18/06… S&P futures -0.7% three sessions later
07/28/06… S&P futures -0.0% three sessions later
03/14/06… S&P futures +0.5% four sessions later
01/09/06… S&P futures -0.1% three sessions later
11/23/05… S&P futures -0.7% three sessions later
06/16/05… S&P futures +0.4% three sessions later
05/23/05… S&P futures +0.3% four sessions later
12/15/04… S&P futures -0.7% three sessions later
11/15/04… S&P futures -0.1% three sessions later
11/03/04… S&P futures +1.7% four sessions later
11/01/04… S&P futures +3.3% four sessions later
10/04/04… S&P futures -0.4%  three sessions later
08/02/04… S&P futures -2.4% three sessions later
05/27/04… S&P futures -0.7% four sessions later
04/01/04… S&P futures +0.8% four sessions later
01/21/04… S&P futures -0.3% four sessions later
01/07/04… S&P futures -0.4% four sessions later
12/23/03… S&P futures +1.3% four sessions later
12/01/03… S&P futures -0.7% four sessions later

Categories : Archived Intraday Commentary, Intraday Commentary

 Print This Post