End-of-Month Tendencies
By
Rennie on Tuesday, September 29th, 2009 at 9:37 pm
When the S&P500 closes lower on the final two trading days of a month, the market has a better-than-average chance of moving higher during the first 2-3 days of the next month. The table below lists each of the last thirty instances in which the S&P closed lower the last two sessions of the month. In 24 out of 30 occurrences, or 80% of the time, the S&P posted a subsequently higher close 2-3 trading days later…
S&P500 Closes Down Last Two Days of Month
08/31/09… S&P500 -1.7% three sessions later
02/27/09… S&P500 -3.0% three sessions later
01/30/09… S&P500 +1.5% two sessions later
04/30/08… S&P500 +2.0% two sessions later
02/29/08… S&P500 +0.2% three sessions later
06/29/07… S&P500 +1.4% two sessions later
04/30/07… S&P500 +0.9% two sessions later
12/29/06… S&P500 +0.0% two sessions later
08/31/06… S&P500 +0.7% two sessions later
03/31/06… S&P500 +0.9% two sessions later
12/30/05… S&P500 +2.0% two sessions later
06/30/05… S&P500 +1.2% two sessions later
11/30/04… S&P500 +1.4% two sessions later
04/30/04… S&P500 +1.1% two sessions later
06/30/03… S&P500 +2.0% two sessions later
03/31/03… S&P500 +3.9% two sessions later
09/30/02… S&P500 +1.6% two sessions later
08/30/02… S&P500 -4.0% three sessions later
10/31/01… S&P500 +2.6% two sessions later
02/28/01… S&P500 +0.1% three sessions later
11/30/99… S&P500 +1.5% two sessions later
08/31/99… S&P500 +2.8% three sessions later
07/30/99… S&P500 -1.8% three sessions later
04/30/99… S&P500 +0.9% three sessions later
03/31/99… S&P500 +2.7% two sessions later
02/26/99… S&P500 -0.9% three sessions later
12/31/98… S&P500 +1.3% two sessions later
08/31/98… S&P500 +3.4% two sessions later
08/29/97… S&P500 +3.2% two sessions later
03/31/97… S&P500 -0.9% three sessions later
That’s not significantly greater than the 63% random odds for a higher S&P close 2-3 sessions later, but despite its recent misses, I would tend to go with this signal if triggered Wednesday. One reason is that the setup has been consistently accurate from a historical perspective. Beyond the 30 signals above, if we look back at the previous 30 signals from 1982 until 1997, we find the trade maintains an 83% accuracy level (25-5) in terms of calling for a higher S&P two or three trading days later. I also generally favor the upside here given the Market Vane survey discussed Sunday, the new high for cumulative TICKscore and the pair of intermediate-term bullish setups on the board, both of which call for an S&P above current levels early next week.
End-of-Month Tendencies
By Rennie on Tuesday, September 29th, 2009 at 9:37 pmWhen the S&P500 closes lower on the final two trading days of a month, the market has a better-than-average chance of moving higher during the first 2-3 days of the next month. The table below lists each of the last thirty instances in which the S&P closed lower the last two sessions of the month. In 24 out of 30 occurrences, or 80% of the time, the S&P posted a subsequently higher close 2-3 trading days later…
S&P500 Closes Down Last Two Days of Month
08/31/09… S&P500 -1.7% three sessions later
02/27/09… S&P500 -3.0% three sessions later
01/30/09… S&P500 +1.5% two sessions later
04/30/08… S&P500 +2.0% two sessions later
02/29/08… S&P500 +0.2% three sessions later
06/29/07… S&P500 +1.4% two sessions later
04/30/07… S&P500 +0.9% two sessions later
12/29/06… S&P500 +0.0% two sessions later
08/31/06… S&P500 +0.7% two sessions later
03/31/06… S&P500 +0.9% two sessions later
12/30/05… S&P500 +2.0% two sessions later
06/30/05… S&P500 +1.2% two sessions later
11/30/04… S&P500 +1.4% two sessions later
04/30/04… S&P500 +1.1% two sessions later
06/30/03… S&P500 +2.0% two sessions later
03/31/03… S&P500 +3.9% two sessions later
09/30/02… S&P500 +1.6% two sessions later
08/30/02… S&P500 -4.0% three sessions later
10/31/01… S&P500 +2.6% two sessions later
02/28/01… S&P500 +0.1% three sessions later
11/30/99… S&P500 +1.5% two sessions later
08/31/99… S&P500 +2.8% three sessions later
07/30/99… S&P500 -1.8% three sessions later
04/30/99… S&P500 +0.9% three sessions later
03/31/99… S&P500 +2.7% two sessions later
02/26/99… S&P500 -0.9% three sessions later
12/31/98… S&P500 +1.3% two sessions later
08/31/98… S&P500 +3.4% two sessions later
08/29/97… S&P500 +3.2% two sessions later
03/31/97… S&P500 -0.9% three sessions later
That’s not significantly greater than the 63% random odds for a higher S&P close 2-3 sessions later, but despite its recent misses, I would tend to go with this signal if triggered Wednesday. One reason is that the setup has been consistently accurate from a historical perspective. Beyond the 30 signals above, if we look back at the previous 30 signals from 1982 until 1997, we find the trade maintains an 83% accuracy level (25-5) in terms of calling for a higher S&P two or three trading days later. I also generally favor the upside here given the Market Vane survey discussed Sunday, the new high for cumulative TICKscore and the pair of intermediate-term bullish setups on the board, both of which call for an S&P above current levels early next week.