S&P Futures Post a Second Upside Gap
By
Rennie on Monday, August 24th, 2009 at 9:30 pm
S&P futures gapped higher at the open and attempted to trend higher, but institutional participation was light (TICKscore only reached +2) and sellers soon gained the upper hand. September S&Ps settled just below unchanged levels, consistent with the market’s tendency to close near unch’d after a six-month closing high. TICKscore settled at -7, Cumulative TICK +12,150. The fact that the market gapped higher for a second consecutive session has positive implications for Tuesday’s session, suggesting choppy conditions are likely to remain in place given the mixed signals on the board. The last thirty times the front-month S&Ps opened above the previous day’s high on two consecutive sessions are listed in the table below, along with the S&P’s performance the following session. Note that in 23 out of the last 30 occurrences, or 77% of the time, the S&P closed higher the next day, significantly above the 55% at-any-time odds for a higher close one day later…
S&P Futures Open >Previous Session’s High Two Days
08/24/09… S&P500 ??? next day
07/21/09… S&P500 -0.4% next day
07/15/09… S&P500 +0.9% next day
06/01/09… S&P500 +0.4% next day
05/07/09… S&P500 +2.4% next day
03/16/09… S&P500 +3.2% next day
12/31/08… S&P500 +3.2% next day
11/25/08… S&P500 +3.5% next day
10/14/08… S&P500 -9.0% next day (*)
05/14/08… S&P500 +1.1% next day
04/16/08… S&P500 +0.1% next day
04/02/08… S&P500 +0.1% next day
03/19/08… S&P500 +2.4% next day
01/25/08… S&P500 +1.8% next day
12/24/07… S&P500 +0.1% next day
10/29/07… S&P500 -0.7% next day
09/27/07… S&P500 -0.3% next day
09/19/07… S&P500 -0.7% next day
08/23/07… S&P500 +1.2% next day
06/01/07… S&P500 +0.2% next day
04/17/07… S&P500 +0.1% next day
04/16/07… S&P500 +0.2% next day
03/09/07… S&P500 +0.3% next day
08/16/06… S&P500 +0.2% next day
08/15/06… S&P500 +0.8% next day
06/30/06… S&P500 +0.8% next day
05/26/06… S&P500 -1.6% next day (*)
12/27/05… S&P500 +0.1% next day
11/18/05… S&P500 +0.5% next day
02/01/05… S&P500 +0.3% next day
10/04/04… S&P500 -0.1% next day
S&P Futures Post a Second Upside Gap
By Rennie on Monday, August 24th, 2009 at 9:30 pmS&P futures gapped higher at the open and attempted to trend higher, but institutional participation was light (TICKscore only reached +2) and sellers soon gained the upper hand. September S&Ps settled just below unchanged levels, consistent with the market’s tendency to close near unch’d after a six-month closing high. TICKscore settled at -7, Cumulative TICK +12,150. The fact that the market gapped higher for a second consecutive session has positive implications for Tuesday’s session, suggesting choppy conditions are likely to remain in place given the mixed signals on the board. The last thirty times the front-month S&Ps opened above the previous day’s high on two consecutive sessions are listed in the table below, along with the S&P’s performance the following session. Note that in 23 out of the last 30 occurrences, or 77% of the time, the S&P closed higher the next day, significantly above the 55% at-any-time odds for a higher close one day later…
S&P Futures Open >Previous Session’s High Two Days
08/24/09… S&P500 ??? next day
07/21/09… S&P500 -0.4% next day
07/15/09… S&P500 +0.9% next day
06/01/09… S&P500 +0.4% next day
05/07/09… S&P500 +2.4% next day
03/16/09… S&P500 +3.2% next day
12/31/08… S&P500 +3.2% next day
11/25/08… S&P500 +3.5% next day
10/14/08… S&P500 -9.0% next day (*)
05/14/08… S&P500 +1.1% next day
04/16/08… S&P500 +0.1% next day
04/02/08… S&P500 +0.1% next day
03/19/08… S&P500 +2.4% next day
01/25/08… S&P500 +1.8% next day
12/24/07… S&P500 +0.1% next day
10/29/07… S&P500 -0.7% next day
09/27/07… S&P500 -0.3% next day
09/19/07… S&P500 -0.7% next day
08/23/07… S&P500 +1.2% next day
06/01/07… S&P500 +0.2% next day
04/17/07… S&P500 +0.1% next day
04/16/07… S&P500 +0.2% next day
03/09/07… S&P500 +0.3% next day
08/16/06… S&P500 +0.2% next day
08/15/06… S&P500 +0.8% next day
06/30/06… S&P500 +0.8% next day
05/26/06… S&P500 -1.6% next day (*)
12/27/05… S&P500 +0.1% next day
11/18/05… S&P500 +0.5% next day
02/01/05… S&P500 +0.3% next day
10/04/04… S&P500 -0.1% next day