SOX Lagging

With the Nasdaq100 (NDX) currently up 1.5%, it’s noteworthy that the semiconductor sector is underperforming in a big way, currently down 0.5%. Historically, it’s not a short-term positive sign when the SOX underperforms by such a wide margin.  The table below lists each of the last thirty instances in which the NDX closed up 1% or more and the SOX settled with a gain of less than 0.5% (or closed lower)…

NDX Gains 1%+, SOX Gains Less Than 0.5% or Settles Lower
04/21/09… No lower close within three sessions
02/03/09… Lower NDX close one session later
01/08/09… Lower NDX close one session later
07/01/08… Lower NDX close one session later
01/31/08… Lower NDX close two sessions later
01/09/08… Lower NDX close two sessions later
12/21/07… Lower NDX close three sessions later
11/16/07… Lower NDX close one session later
10/26/07… No lower close within three sessions
10/23/07… Lower NDX close one session later
08/02/07… Lower NDX close one session later
05/16/07… Lower NDX close one session later
03/14/07… Lower NDX close two sessions later
01/11/07… Lower NDX close three sessions later
09/20/06… Lower NDX close one session later
05/25/06… Lower NDX close two sessions later
10/19/05… Lower NDX close one session later
11/22/04… Lower NDX close one session later
04/22/04… Lower NDX close two sessions later
09/02/03… Lower NDX close one session later
06/11/03… Lower NDX close two sessions later
02/21/03… Lower NDX close one session later
12/06/02… Lower NDX close one session later
10/14/02… No lower close within three sessions
09/09/02… Lower NDX close three sessions later
08/29/02… Lower NDX close one session later
08/22/02… Lower NDX close one session later
07/26/02… No lower close within three sessions
07/17/02… Lower NDX close one session later
06/05/02… Lower NDX close one session later
05/23/02… Lower NDX close one session later

Note that in 26 out of 30 cases, or 87% of the time, the NDX posted a subsequently lower close (below the setup day) within the next three sessions (and usually within the next two). That’s significantly above the 68% at-any-time odds for a lower NDX close within three days.

Categories : Archived Intraday Commentary, Intraday Commentary

 Print This Post