Low Equity Put/Call Ratio Despite Morning Drop
By
Rennie on Monday, August 31st, 2009 at 1:16 pm
One potentially positive sign from a short-term perspective is the fact that the 10-day moving average of the CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio is continuing to trend lower today. The ratio currently stands at .62, and any close below .71 will keep the 10-day average in a downtrend. In recent years, it’s been a short-term positive sign for the market when the S&P closes lower two days in a row and the put/call ratio moving average also declines both days. The last thirty occurrences are listed in the table below…
S&P Down Two, Equity P/C 10day Avg Down Two
02/26/09… No higher close in the next 1-2 days
12/18/08… Higher S&P close one session later
11/17/08… Higher S&P close one session later
10/22/08… Higher S&P close one session later
09/24/08… Higher S&P close one session later
09/23/08… Higher S&P close two sessions later
08/13/08… Higher S&P close one session later
08/04/08… Higher S&P close one session later
04/30/08… Higher S&P close one session later
04/22/08… Higher S&P close one session later
12/17/07… Higher S&P close one session later
10/03/07… Higher S&P close one session later
01/03/07… Higher S&P close one session later
09/07/06… Higher S&P close one session later
07/27/06… Higher S&P close one session later
06/23/06… Higher S&P close one session later
06/20/06… Higher S&P close one session later
05/23/06… Higher S&P close one session later
03/31/06… Higher S&P close one session later
02/21/06… Higher S&P close one session later
12/16/05… No higher close in the next 1-2 days
10/26/05… Higher S&P close two sessions later
08/08/05… Higher S&P close one session later
08/05/05… Higher S&P close two sessions later
05/13/05… Higher S&P close one session later
11/10/04… Higher S&P close one session later
11/09/04… Higher S&P close two sessions later
10/25/04… Higher S&P close one session later
07/19/04… Higher S&P close one session later
06/25/04… Higher S&P close two sessions later
Note that in 28 out of 30 cases, or 93% of the time, the S&P posted a subsequently higher close within the next two sessions, well ahead of the 67% at-any-time odds in the same time frame.
Low Equity Put/Call Ratio Despite Morning Drop
By Rennie on Monday, August 31st, 2009 at 1:16 pmOne potentially positive sign from a short-term perspective is the fact that the 10-day moving average of the CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio is continuing to trend lower today. The ratio currently stands at .62, and any close below .71 will keep the 10-day average in a downtrend. In recent years, it’s been a short-term positive sign for the market when the S&P closes lower two days in a row and the put/call ratio moving average also declines both days. The last thirty occurrences are listed in the table below…
S&P Down Two, Equity P/C 10day Avg Down Two
02/26/09… No higher close in the next 1-2 days
12/18/08… Higher S&P close one session later
11/17/08… Higher S&P close one session later
10/22/08… Higher S&P close one session later
09/24/08… Higher S&P close one session later
09/23/08… Higher S&P close two sessions later
08/13/08… Higher S&P close one session later
08/04/08… Higher S&P close one session later
04/30/08… Higher S&P close one session later
04/22/08… Higher S&P close one session later
12/17/07… Higher S&P close one session later
10/03/07… Higher S&P close one session later
01/03/07… Higher S&P close one session later
09/07/06… Higher S&P close one session later
07/27/06… Higher S&P close one session later
06/23/06… Higher S&P close one session later
06/20/06… Higher S&P close one session later
05/23/06… Higher S&P close one session later
03/31/06… Higher S&P close one session later
02/21/06… Higher S&P close one session later
12/16/05… No higher close in the next 1-2 days
10/26/05… Higher S&P close two sessions later
08/08/05… Higher S&P close one session later
08/05/05… Higher S&P close two sessions later
05/13/05… Higher S&P close one session later
11/10/04… Higher S&P close one session later
11/09/04… Higher S&P close two sessions later
10/25/04… Higher S&P close one session later
07/19/04… Higher S&P close one session later
06/25/04… Higher S&P close two sessions later
Note that in 28 out of 30 cases, or 93% of the time, the S&P posted a subsequently higher close within the next two sessions, well ahead of the 67% at-any-time odds in the same time frame.