Down Volume Percentage Set to Trigger a Signal
By
Rennie on Monday, August 3rd, 2009 at 12:19 pm
Volume associated with declining issues currently 14% of total NYSE volume. Any close below 37% will send the 20-day moving average of down volume below 40%, a bullish sign from a longer-term perspective as it reflects a real absence of selling pressure. When the down volume average has been this low in the past, stocks have typically remained on firm footing over the next two months (see long-term chart). The table below lists each of the last thirty instances in which the 20-day moving average of NYSE Down Volume fell below 40% for the first time in at least a month…
20day Average of Down Volume <40% First Time in a Month
04/02/09… S&P500 +13.0% two months later
12/19/08… S&P500 -12.3% two months later
04/16/07… S&P500 +1.7% two months later
11/25/05… S&P500 -0.1% two months later
11/17/04… S&P500 +0.2% two months later
09/07/04… S&P500 +0.8% two months later
01/06/04… S&P500 +2.8% two months later
09/02/03… S&P500 +2.4% two months later
05/09/03… S&P500 +8.0% two months later
11/06/02… S&P500 +0.6% two months later
11/02/98… S&P500 +10.8% two months later
02/09/98… S&P500 +9.8% two months later
05/05/97… S&P500 +7.3% two months later
03/11/97… S&P500 +0.5% two months later
01/10/97… S&P500 +7.1% two months later
11/18/96… S&P500 +4.4% two months later
08/12/96… S&P500 +5.2% two months later
05/09/96… S&P500 +1.1% two months later
02/01/96… S&P500 +1.1% two months later
11/24/95… S&P500 +2.1% two months later
01/09/95… S&P500 +4.6% two months later
07/25/94… S&P500 +2.0% two months later
05/19/94… S&P500 -0.3% two months later
12/27/93… S&P500 +0.2% two months later
10/14/93… S&P500 -0.6% two months later
08/17/93… S&P500 +1.8% two months later
05/20/93… S&P500 -1.0% two months later
03/16/93… S&P500 -1.5% two months later
10/30/92… S&P500 +4.6% two months later
09/22/92… S&P500 +0.5% two months later
Note that in 24 out of the last 30 occurrences, or 80% of the time, the S&P was trading at a higher level two months later. That’s significantly greater than the 62% at-any-time odds. Equally noteworthy is that the S&P was down more than 1.5% two months later only once out of the last thirty signals, while it gained more than 1.5% sixteen times.
Down Volume Percentage Set to Trigger a Signal
By Rennie on Monday, August 3rd, 2009 at 12:19 pmVolume associated with declining issues currently 14% of total NYSE volume. Any close below 37% will send the 20-day moving average of down volume below 40%, a bullish sign from a longer-term perspective as it reflects a real absence of selling pressure. When the down volume average has been this low in the past, stocks have typically remained on firm footing over the next two months (see long-term chart). The table below lists each of the last thirty instances in which the 20-day moving average of NYSE Down Volume fell below 40% for the first time in at least a month…
20day Average of Down Volume <40% First Time in a Month
04/02/09… S&P500 +13.0% two months later
12/19/08… S&P500 -12.3% two months later
04/16/07… S&P500 +1.7% two months later
11/25/05… S&P500 -0.1% two months later
11/17/04… S&P500 +0.2% two months later
09/07/04… S&P500 +0.8% two months later
01/06/04… S&P500 +2.8% two months later
09/02/03… S&P500 +2.4% two months later
05/09/03… S&P500 +8.0% two months later
11/06/02… S&P500 +0.6% two months later
11/02/98… S&P500 +10.8% two months later
02/09/98… S&P500 +9.8% two months later
05/05/97… S&P500 +7.3% two months later
03/11/97… S&P500 +0.5% two months later
01/10/97… S&P500 +7.1% two months later
11/18/96… S&P500 +4.4% two months later
08/12/96… S&P500 +5.2% two months later
05/09/96… S&P500 +1.1% two months later
02/01/96… S&P500 +1.1% two months later
11/24/95… S&P500 +2.1% two months later
01/09/95… S&P500 +4.6% two months later
07/25/94… S&P500 +2.0% two months later
05/19/94… S&P500 -0.3% two months later
12/27/93… S&P500 +0.2% two months later
10/14/93… S&P500 -0.6% two months later
08/17/93… S&P500 +1.8% two months later
05/20/93… S&P500 -1.0% two months later
03/16/93… S&P500 -1.5% two months later
10/30/92… S&P500 +4.6% two months later
09/22/92… S&P500 +0.5% two months later
Note that in 24 out of the last 30 occurrences, or 80% of the time, the S&P was trading at a higher level two months later. That’s significantly greater than the 62% at-any-time odds. Equally noteworthy is that the S&P was down more than 1.5% two months later only once out of the last thirty signals, while it gained more than 1.5% sixteen times.