Big Move on Expiration Friday
By
Rennie on Friday, August 21st, 2009 at 1:08 pm
Friday is shaping up to be the first options expiration of 2009 in which the S&P finishes up 1%+. Big moves on options expiration typically translate into a flat-to-down market over the following week. The table below lists each of the last thirty instances in which the S&P closed up 1% or more on Expiration Friday…
S&P500 +1.0% on Expiration Friday
11/21/08… S&P500 +2.0% one week later
09/19/08… s&P500 -3.4% one week later
04/18/08… S&P500 +0.5% one week later
03/20/08… S&P500 -1.1% one week later
12/21/07… S&P500 -1.1% one week later
08/17/07… S&P500 +2.3% one week later
07/18/03… S&P500 +0.5% one week later
04/17/03… S&P500 +0.6% one week later
03/21/03… S&P500 -3.6% one week later
02/21/03… S&P500 -0.8% one week later
12/20/02… S&P500 -1.8% one week later
03/15/02… S&P500 -1.5% one week later
09/17/99… S&P500 -4.4% one week later
01/15/99… S&P500 -0.8% one week later
04/17/98… S&P500 -1.3% one week later
01/16/98… S&P500 -0.5% one week later
12/18/92… S&P500 -0.5% one week later
12/20/91… S&P500 +7.3% one week later
02/15/91… S&P500 -0.5% one week later
01/18/91… S&P500 +1.2% one week later
10/19/90… S&P500 -2.5% one week later
03/16/90… S&P500 -1.4% one week later
05/19/89… S&P500 +0.1% one week later
04/21/89… S&P500 +0.0% one week later
02/19/88… S&P500 +0.3% one week later
01/15/88… S&P500 -2.2% one week later
12/18/87… S&P500 -1.4% one week later
03/20/87… S&P500 -0.7% one week later
12/19/86… S&P500 -2.0% one week later
11/21/86… S&P500 +1.3% one week later
Note that the S&P was twice as likely to trade lower the following week (five trading days). Out of the last 30 occurrences, only five saw the S&P gain 1% or more the following week, while it lost 1% or more thirteen times, indicating a big move on Expiration Friday often means buying power is at or near a short-term exhaustion point.
Big Move on Expiration Friday
By Rennie on Friday, August 21st, 2009 at 1:08 pmFriday is shaping up to be the first options expiration of 2009 in which the S&P finishes up 1%+. Big moves on options expiration typically translate into a flat-to-down market over the following week. The table below lists each of the last thirty instances in which the S&P closed up 1% or more on Expiration Friday…
S&P500 +1.0% on Expiration Friday
11/21/08… S&P500 +2.0% one week later
09/19/08… s&P500 -3.4% one week later
04/18/08… S&P500 +0.5% one week later
03/20/08… S&P500 -1.1% one week later
12/21/07… S&P500 -1.1% one week later
08/17/07… S&P500 +2.3% one week later
07/18/03… S&P500 +0.5% one week later
04/17/03… S&P500 +0.6% one week later
03/21/03… S&P500 -3.6% one week later
02/21/03… S&P500 -0.8% one week later
12/20/02… S&P500 -1.8% one week later
03/15/02… S&P500 -1.5% one week later
09/17/99… S&P500 -4.4% one week later
01/15/99… S&P500 -0.8% one week later
04/17/98… S&P500 -1.3% one week later
01/16/98… S&P500 -0.5% one week later
12/18/92… S&P500 -0.5% one week later
12/20/91… S&P500 +7.3% one week later
02/15/91… S&P500 -0.5% one week later
01/18/91… S&P500 +1.2% one week later
10/19/90… S&P500 -2.5% one week later
03/16/90… S&P500 -1.4% one week later
05/19/89… S&P500 +0.1% one week later
04/21/89… S&P500 +0.0% one week later
02/19/88… S&P500 +0.3% one week later
01/15/88… S&P500 -2.2% one week later
12/18/87… S&P500 -1.4% one week later
03/20/87… S&P500 -0.7% one week later
12/19/86… S&P500 -2.0% one week later
11/21/86… S&P500 +1.3% one week later
Note that the S&P was twice as likely to trade lower the following week (five trading days). Out of the last 30 occurrences, only five saw the S&P gain 1% or more the following week, while it lost 1% or more thirteen times, indicating a big move on Expiration Friday often means buying power is at or near a short-term exhaustion point.