Jul
19

SPY Volume Hits a New Low for 2009

By on Sunday, July 19th, 2009 at 5:41 pm

Institutional participation was very light Friday, as evidenced by the extremely narrow range (see intraday update) and light SPY volume. Only 138 million SPY shares traded hands, the lightest one-day volume of the entire year. Historically, it’s a short-term negative sign when the SPY closes at a 20-day high and SPY volume hits a 20-day low. The last thirty occurrences are listed in the table below…

SPY Closes at Twenty-Day High, SPY Volume Hits Twenty-Day Low
07/17/09… ???
04/13/09… Lower SPY close two sessions later
04/03/09… Lower SPY close two sessions later
04/28/08… Lower SPY close two sessions later
04/21/08… Lower SPY close two sessions later
04/05/07… Lower SPY close three sessions later
04/04/07… No lower SPY close 2-3 sessions later
02/15/07… No lower SPY close 2-3 sessions later
11/22/06… Lower SPY close two sessions later
07/03/06… Lower SPY close two sessions later
05/09/06… Lower SPY close two sessions later
11/25/05… Lower SPY close two sessions later
11/11/05… Lower SPY close two sessions later
08/03/05… Lower SPY close two sessions later
05/27/05… No lower SPY close 2-3 sessions later
05/26/05… Lower SPY close two sessions later
12/28/04… Lower SPY close two sessions later
08/27/04… Lower SPY close two sessions later
04/05/04… Lower SPY close two sessions later
02/17/04… Lower SPY close two sessions later
11/28/03… No lower SPY close 2-3 sessions later
11/05/02… Lower SPY close two sessions later
11/19/01… Lower SPY close two sessions later
11/13/01… Lower SPY close three sessions later
05/18/01… Lower SPY close three sessions later
11/06/00… Lower SPY close two sessions later
08/21/00… No lower SPY close 2-3 sessions later
11/15/99… No lower SPY close 2-3 sessions later
07/16/99… Lower SPY close two sessions later
04/26/99… Lower SPY close two sessions later
03/18/99… Lower SPY close two sessions later

Note that in 24 out of 30 cases, or 80% of the time, the SPY closed at a subsequently lower level 2-3 sessions later, significantly above the 58% at-any-time odds for a lower SPY Close 2-3 days later. This signal could also be viewed as strictly a 2-day sell signal as well, with 70% accuracy vs. 48% at-any-time odds for a lower SPY close two days later.

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Comments, data and trading signals herein are for informational purposes only and are not recommendations to buy or sell. All information presented is believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed.