Intraday Update (Nasdaq Shrugging off S&P Weakness)

With the S&P trading lower and short-term bearish setups set to fall off the board at today’s close, the fact that the Nasdaq is outperforming today could trigger a bullish setup at the close. Specifically, we’ll want to watch for an S&P close down 0.66% or more while the NDX settles down less than 0.33% (or closes higher). We’re right about at those levels currently, with the S&P off 0.5% while the Nasdaq100 is up slightly. Historically, when the S&P settles down more than two-thirds of one percent and the NDX shrugs it off, it’s a bullish indication looking out 2-3 trading days. The last thirty times this price pattern has been triggered are listed in the table below. Note that in 26 out of 30 cases, or 87% of the time, the S&P closed at a subsequently higher level 2-3 trading days later, significantly above the 63% at-any-time odds for a higher SPX close 2-3 days later.

S&P500 -0.66% or More, NDX -0.33% or Less
06/03/09…  Higher S&P close two sessions later
05/11/09…  No higher close 2-3 days later
04/27/09…  Higher S&P close two sessions later
04/22/09…  Higher S&P close two sessions later
04/06/09…  Higher S&P close three sessions later
03/19/09…  Higher S&P close two sessions later
02/20/09…  Higher S&P close two sessions later
02/04/09…  Higher S&P close two sessions later
10/29/08…  Higher S&P close two sessions later
10/08/08…  Higher S&P close three sessions later
08/12/08…  Higher S&P close two sessions later
07/31/08…  Higher S&P close three sessions later
07/15/08…  Higher S&P close two sessions later
07/07/08…  Higher S&P close three sessions later
05/23/08…  Higher S&P close two sessions later
03/07/08…  Higher S&P close two sessions later
02/28/08…  No higher close 2-3 days later
06/13/06…  Higher S&P close two sessions later
09/13/05…  Higher S&P close three sessions later
07/21/05…  Higher S&P close two sessions later
05/12/05…  Higher S&P close two sessions later
10/13/04…  Higher S&P close three sessions later
06/25/03…  Higher S&P close two sessions later
04/16/03…  Higher S&P close two sessions later
02/11/03…  Higher S&P close three sessions later
01/22/03…  No higher close 2-3 days later
12/17/02…  No higher close 2-3 days later
09/24/02…  Higher S&P close two sessions later
04/15/02…  Higher S&P close two sessions later
03/05/02…  Higher S&P close two sessions later
10/18/01…  Higher S&P close two sessions later
10/08/01…  Higher S&P close two sessions later
08/09/00…  Higher S&P close three sessions later

Categories : Archived Intraday Commentary, Intraday Commentary

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