Intraday Update (Tight Range Spells Trouble)

S&P500 currently trading in a tight 7-point trading range. If the S&P remains range-bound heading into the close, it will trigger a short-term sell signal at today’s close. Historically, it’s a short-term negative sign when an NR10 bar appears after a short-term rally. In the table below I’ve listed each of the last thirty instances in which the S&P posted its narrowest range day of the past ten sessions (NR10) immediately following three consecutive higher closes. Note that in 29 out of 30 cases, or 97% of the time, the S&P posted a subsequently lower close within the next three days. This setup will go into effect at today’s close as long as today’s current high (920.09) and low (913.03)
isn’t exceeded by more than 2.77.

SPX NR10 Bar Following Three Up Days
06/02/09… Lower SPX close one session later
03/13/09… Lower SPX close one session later
11/28/08… Lower SPX close one session later
05/30/08… Lower SPX close one session later
04/28/08… Lower SPX close one session later
04/08/08… Lower SPX close one session later
03/26/08… Lower SPX close one session later
12/26/07… Lower SPX close one session later
12/03/07… Lower SPX close one session later
09/14/07… Lower SPX close one session later
07/09/07… Lower SPX close one session later
06/18/07… Lower SPX close two sessions later
05/07/07… Lower SPX close one session later
04/09/07… Lower SPX close two sessions later
03/22/07… Lower SPX close three sessions later
02/02/07… Lower SPX close one session later
01/16/07… Lower SPX close one session later
10/24/06… Lower SPX close three sessions later
09/28/06… Lower SPX close one session later
08/21/06… Lower SPX close two sessions later
03/17/06… Lower SPX close one session later
02/17/06… Lower SPX close one session later
11/25/05… Lower SPX close one session later
09/30/05… Lower SPX close one session later
07/13/05… Lower SPX close three sessions later
05/19/05… Lower SPX close one session later
12/23/04… Lower SPX close one session later
11/08/04… Lower SPX close one session later
11/01/04… No lower close within three sessions
09/14/04… Lower SPX close one session later

Categories : Archived Intraday Commentary, Intraday Commentary

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