S&P and NASDAQ Touch New Highs, Fewer Individual Stocks Follow Suit

The S&P followed through with another higher close Tuesday, consistent with the market’s short-term bullish tendency following two upside gaps in S&P futures. TICKscore closed at a respectable +29, Cumulative TICK +54,000 as institutions remained better buyers. While the S&P500 and Nasdaq100 both hit their highest level in over a month, the number of stocks hitting new 52-week highs contracted on both the NYSE and NASDAQ. That signals fewer stocks were driving the market rally, a pattern that usually leads to a lower S&P close within the next couple of days. The table below lists the last thirty instances in which the SPX and NDX both hit new 20-day highs and closed higher despite a contraction in new 52-week highs on both the NYSE and NASDAQ. Note the definitive tendency for the S&P to turn around and post a lower close (below the setup day). In 25 out of 30 occurrences, or 83% of the time, the S&P500 closed below the setup day’s close within the next two sessions, significantly above the 62% at-any-time odds for a lower S&P close within two days…

NDX & SPX Hit New 20day Highs, Close Higher, New 52-week Highs Drop
06/02/09… ???
05/06/09… Lower S&P close one session later
01/02/09… Lower S&P close one session later
05/15/08… No lower close within two sessions
04/17/07… Lower S&P close two sessions later
02/15/07… Lower S&P close one session later
11/16/06… No lower close within two sessions
09/01/06… Lower S&P close two sessions later
07/12/05… No lower close within two sessions
05/19/05… Lower S&P close one session later
12/03/04… Lower S&P close one session later
09/02/04… Lower S&P close one session later
06/08/04… Lower S&P close one session later
01/07/04… Lower S&P close two sessions later
05/06/03… Lower S&P close one session later
08/22/02… Lower S&P close one session later
03/08/02… No lower close within two sessions
04/19/01… Lower S&P close one session later
01/18/01… Lower S&P close one session later
09/01/00… Lower S&P close one session later
07/17/00… Lower S&P close one session later
07/14/00… Lower S&P close two sessions later
11/18/99… Lower S&P close one session later
11/12/99… Lower S&P close one session later
08/24/99… Lower S&P close two sessions later
11/05/98… Lower S&P close two sessions later
07/13/98… No lower close within two sessions
07/08/98… Lower S&P close one session later
04/03/98… Lower S&P close one session later
02/12/98… Lower S&P close one session later
02/03/98… Lower S&P close two sessions later

Categories : Archived EOD Commentary, End-of-Day Commentary

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