Intraday Update (New 52-week Highs Not Keeping Up)
By
Rennie on Thursday, June 11th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
S&P500 currently up 1% with higher highs and higher lows, but noteworthy that new 52-week highs have so far failed to exceed yesterday’s levels on the NYSE. Should the number of new highs remain below 18 at today’s close (currently @ 17) and the SPX finishes up more than 0.75% (currently +0.9%), a three-day sell setup will be triggered. The last thirty times this pattern has occurred are noted in the table below, along with the S&P’s performance over the next three trading days. Note that in 22 out of the last 30 occurrences, or 73% of the time, the S&P500 was trading at a lower level three sessions later, significantly greater than the 46% at-any-time odds for a lower S&P three sessions later.
S&P +0.75% & Rally Day, New 52-week Highs Drop
05/08/09 S&P500 -4.9% three sessions later
05/06/09 S&P500 -1.1% three sessions later
03/04/09 S&P500 -5.1% three sessions later
02/03/09 S&P500 +3.6% three sessions later
01/28/09 S&P500 -5.6% three sessions later
01/02/09 S&P500 -2.7% three sessions later
11/28/08 S&P500 -2.9% three sessions later
11/24/08 S&P500 +5.2% three sessions later
11/04/08 S&P500 -7.4% three sessions later
10/31/08 S&P500 -1.7% three sessions later
10/13/08 S&P500 -5.7% three sessions later
07/16/08 S&P500 +1.2% three sessions later
07/08/08 S&P500 -2.7% three sessions later
05/15/08 S&P500 -0.7% three sessions later
05/12/08 S&P500 +1.4% three sessions later
03/18/08 S&P500 +1.4% three sessions later
02/13/08 S&P500 -1.4% three sessions later
01/24/08 S&P500 +0.8% three sessions later
01/10/08 S&P500 -2.8% three sessions later
11/23/07 S&P500 +2.0% three sessions later
07/28/06 S&P500 -0.0% three sessions later
07/03/06 S&P500 -1.2% three sessions later
02/08/06 S&P500 -0.2% three sessions later
09/02/04 S&P500 -0.2% three sessions later
04/05/04 S&P500 -1.0% three sessions later
05/06/03 S&P500 -0.1% three sessions later
04/23/03 S&P500 -0.5% three sessions later
03/19/03 S&P500 -1.1% three sessions later
09/25/02 S&P500 -2.9% three sessions later
09/06/02 S&P500 +1.7% three sessions later
Intraday Update (New 52-week Highs Not Keeping Up)
By Rennie on Thursday, June 11th, 2009 at 3:33 pmS&P500 currently up 1% with higher highs and higher lows, but noteworthy that new 52-week highs have so far failed to exceed yesterday’s levels on the NYSE. Should the number of new highs remain below 18 at today’s close (currently @ 17) and the SPX finishes up more than 0.75% (currently +0.9%), a three-day sell setup will be triggered. The last thirty times this pattern has occurred are noted in the table below, along with the S&P’s performance over the next three trading days. Note that in 22 out of the last 30 occurrences, or 73% of the time, the S&P500 was trading at a lower level three sessions later, significantly greater than the 46% at-any-time odds for a lower S&P three sessions later.
S&P +0.75% & Rally Day, New 52-week Highs Drop
05/08/09 S&P500 -4.9% three sessions later
05/06/09 S&P500 -1.1% three sessions later
03/04/09 S&P500 -5.1% three sessions later
02/03/09 S&P500 +3.6% three sessions later
01/28/09 S&P500 -5.6% three sessions later
01/02/09 S&P500 -2.7% three sessions later
11/28/08 S&P500 -2.9% three sessions later
11/24/08 S&P500 +5.2% three sessions later
11/04/08 S&P500 -7.4% three sessions later
10/31/08 S&P500 -1.7% three sessions later
10/13/08 S&P500 -5.7% three sessions later
07/16/08 S&P500 +1.2% three sessions later
07/08/08 S&P500 -2.7% three sessions later
05/15/08 S&P500 -0.7% three sessions later
05/12/08 S&P500 +1.4% three sessions later
03/18/08 S&P500 +1.4% three sessions later
02/13/08 S&P500 -1.4% three sessions later
01/24/08 S&P500 +0.8% three sessions later
01/10/08 S&P500 -2.8% three sessions later
11/23/07 S&P500 +2.0% three sessions later
07/28/06 S&P500 -0.0% three sessions later
07/03/06 S&P500 -1.2% three sessions later
02/08/06 S&P500 -0.2% three sessions later
09/02/04 S&P500 -0.2% three sessions later
04/05/04 S&P500 -1.0% three sessions later
05/06/03 S&P500 -0.1% three sessions later
04/23/03 S&P500 -0.5% three sessions later
03/19/03 S&P500 -1.1% three sessions later
09/25/02 S&P500 -2.9% three sessions later
09/06/02 S&P500 +1.7% three sessions later