Intraday Update (Narrow Range Trade Continues)

Yesterday I noted that the S&P formed an NR10 bar, meaning the narrowest range day of the last ten sessions. Coming after a string of up days, it indicated the likelihood of lower prices short-term. With the market posting a solid down day today, it’s again noteworthy that one index in particular, the Nasdaq100 (NDX), is trading in a tight range. If it holds above 1453.10, the NDX will post an NR10 bar today (NDX currently at 1467). That would be particularly noteworthy if NASDAQ breadth holds in 2:1 negative territory, as is the case presently. This has only happened 12 times since 1990, but it’s been a fairly consistent indicator of a higher Nasdaq three sessions later…

Nasdaq NR10 Day & 2:1 Negative Breadth
03/27/09? Nasdaq +0.1% three sessions later
10/27/08? Nasdaq +14.0% three sessions later
05/23/08? Nasdaq +3.1% three sessions later
08/11/06? Nasdaq +5.6% three sessions later
07/21/06? Nasdaq +2.5% three sessions later
10/18/05? Nasdaq +1.7% three sessions later
05/10/04? Nasdaq +1.4% three sessions later
04/06/04? Nasdaq +0.2% three sessions later
12/13/02? Nasdaq +0.8% three sessions later
09/05/02? Nasdaq +7.3% three sessions later
08/03/98? Nasdaq -0.2% three sessions later
01/21/92? Nasdaq +5.3% three sessions later

Categories : Archived Intraday Commentary, Intraday Commentary

 Print This Post