Intraday Update (Market Rallying as Fear is on the Rise)
By
Rennie on Thursday, June 18th, 2009 at 1:35 pm
CBOE equity put/call ratio running relatively high at .74. Any closing reading over .63 will keep the 10-day moving average in an uptrend. That’s noteworthy with the S&P500 currently sporting a 1%+ gain. In recent years, a 1% gain that coincided with a rising 10-day equity put/call moving average has typically been a selling opportunity looking out 3-5 trading days. Out of the last 30 occurrences, 26 led to a lower SPX close 3 or 5 trading days later, significantly above the 64% at-any-time odds for a lower SPX 3 or 5 days later…
S&P500 +1%, Equity Put/Call Ratio 10d Avg Rising
05/18/09… Lower S&P close three sessions later
04/24/09… No lower close 3 or 5 sessions later
04/08/09… No lower close 3 or 5 sessions later
04/01/09… No lower close 3 or 5 sessions later
03/26/09… Lower S&P close three sessions later
02/24/09… Lower S&P close three sessions later
01/21/09… Lower S&P close three sessions later
01/02/09… Lower S&P close three sessions later
12/10/08… Lower S&P close three sessions later
11/21/08… No lower close 3 or 5 sessions later
11/13/08… Lower S&P close three sessions later
10/16/08… Lower S&P close five sessions later
09/18/08… Lower S&P close three sessions later
09/16/08… Lower S&P close five sessions later
09/11/08… Lower S&P close three sessions later
09/08/08… Lower S&P close three sessions later
08/28/08… Lower S&P close three sessions later
07/22/08… Lower S&P close three sessions later
07/17/08… Lower S&P close five sessions later
07/08/08… Lower S&P close three sessions later
06/13/08… Lower S&P close three sessions later
05/15/08… Lower S&P close three sessions later
03/11/08… Lower S&P close three sessions later
02/13/08… Lower S&P close three sessions later
01/14/08… Lower S&P close three sessions later
01/09/08… Lower S&P close five sessions later
12/21/07… Lower S&P close three sessions later
11/13/07… Lower S&P close three sessions later
11/06/07… Lower S&P close three sessions later
09/18/07… Lower S&P close five sessions later
Intraday Update (Market Rallying as Fear is on the Rise)
By Rennie on Thursday, June 18th, 2009 at 1:35 pmCBOE equity put/call ratio running relatively high at .74. Any closing reading over .63 will keep the 10-day moving average in an uptrend. That’s noteworthy with the S&P500 currently sporting a 1%+ gain. In recent years, a 1% gain that coincided with a rising 10-day equity put/call moving average has typically been a selling opportunity looking out 3-5 trading days. Out of the last 30 occurrences, 26 led to a lower SPX close 3 or 5 trading days later, significantly above the 64% at-any-time odds for a lower SPX 3 or 5 days later…
S&P500 +1%, Equity Put/Call Ratio 10d Avg Rising
05/18/09… Lower S&P close three sessions later
04/24/09… No lower close 3 or 5 sessions later
04/08/09… No lower close 3 or 5 sessions later
04/01/09… No lower close 3 or 5 sessions later
03/26/09… Lower S&P close three sessions later
02/24/09… Lower S&P close three sessions later
01/21/09… Lower S&P close three sessions later
01/02/09… Lower S&P close three sessions later
12/10/08… Lower S&P close three sessions later
11/21/08… No lower close 3 or 5 sessions later
11/13/08… Lower S&P close three sessions later
10/16/08… Lower S&P close five sessions later
09/18/08… Lower S&P close three sessions later
09/16/08… Lower S&P close five sessions later
09/11/08… Lower S&P close three sessions later
09/08/08… Lower S&P close three sessions later
08/28/08… Lower S&P close three sessions later
07/22/08… Lower S&P close three sessions later
07/17/08… Lower S&P close five sessions later
07/08/08… Lower S&P close three sessions later
06/13/08… Lower S&P close three sessions later
05/15/08… Lower S&P close three sessions later
03/11/08… Lower S&P close three sessions later
02/13/08… Lower S&P close three sessions later
01/14/08… Lower S&P close three sessions later
01/09/08… Lower S&P close five sessions later
12/21/07… Lower S&P close three sessions later
11/13/07… Lower S&P close three sessions later
11/06/07… Lower S&P close three sessions later
09/18/07… Lower S&P close five sessions later