Intraday Update (BKX Lagging)

S&P up 2% heading into the afternoon session, but the Philadelphia Bank Index is lagging significantly behind, currently up only 0.8%. When the S&P closes up 1% or more and doubles the performance of the BKX, it typically reverses course and closes at a lower level within the next couple of days. The last thirty occurrences are listed in the table below. Note that in 25 cases, or 83% of the time, the S&P closed below the setup day’s settlement within two sessions. That’s significantly above the S&P’s 63% at-any-time odds, indicating significant underperformance by the bank sector on a solid up day has short-term bearish implications…

SPX +1%, Doubles Performance of BKX
06/01/09… Lower SPX close two sessions later
04/08/09… No lower close within two sessions
03/26/09… Lower SPX close one session later
03/04/09… Lower SPX close one session later
02/03/09… Lower SPX close one session later
12/10/08… Lower SPX close one session later
11/21/08… No lower close within two sessions
11/07/08… Lower SPX close one session later
10/30/08… No lower close within two sessions
10/23/08… Lower SPX close one session later
10/20/08… Lower SPX close one session later
10/13/08… Lower SPX close one session later
06/13/08… Lower SPX close two sessions later
03/24/08… Lower SPX close two sessions later
02/13/08… Lower SPX close one session later
01/14/08… Lower SPX close one session later
10/31/07… Lower SPX close one session later
08/24/07… Lower SPX close one session later
08/22/07… Lower SPX close one session later
03/06/07… Lower SPX close one session later
05/25/06… Lower SPX close two sessions later
04/21/05… Lower SPX close one session later
11/12/03… Lower SPX close one session later
05/09/03… No lower close within two sessions
04/10/02… Lower SPX close one session later
10/03/01… Lower SPX close one session later
08/24/01… Lower SPX close one session later
07/25/01… No lower close within two sessions
06/05/01… Lower SPX close one session later
05/21/01… Lower SPX close one session later

Categories : Archived Intraday Commentary, Intraday Commentary

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