Mind the Gap(s)
By
Rennie on Thursday, May 7th, 2009 at 11:33 pm
Traders sold aggressively into Thursday’s gap up open in S&P futures, the fifth upside gap in the last ten days (an important short-term development). Institutional participation was relatively low, with market internals reflecting only mild selling pressure. TICKscore settled at -18, Cumulative TICK -38,000. Volume was heavy, particularly on the NASDAQ where 3.2 billion shares traded hands, the heaviest one-day volume since last October.
Standard & Poors Oscillator is holding over 7 after closing above this level three days ago. If the SPX remains above 907.24 at Monday’s close, the two-week buy signal recently highlighted in my April 14th column will be triggered.
The OEX outperformed the SPX significantly Thursday, falling 1.03% vs. a 1.32% loss for the S&P500. It just missed being triggered, but historically when both indices fall 1%+ and the OEX outperforms the SPX by more than 0.3%, it’s a short-term bullish sign (see my January 22nd column)
The NASDAQ/NYSE Volume Ratio closed at a high 1.64, sending the 20-day moving average up to the 1.50 level. That triggers the longer-term bearish setup outlined this past Sunday, indicating the NDX is likely to be trading south of 1389 when the NASDAQ/NYSE Volume Ratio 20-day average falls back under 1.40. It’s important to keep in mind this is a long-term setup that could be in effect for weeks or even many months. It’s a good indication that speculative participants are clearly dominating trade, which does not have bullish implications, but that doesn’t necessarily mean this trend can’t persist a while longer.
OEX 419.49 remains a key level to monitor for Friday’s session. A break of that level would trigger the volatility-based sell setup outlined in Tuesday evening’s column.
Probably the most significant development for the short-term is the fact that S&P futures posted back-to-back upside gaps Wednesday and Thursday. A gap in this case is defined as simply an open above the previous session’s high. When you see this on two consecutive sessions, it’s a sign of strength for the next day (regardless of how the market closes). The last thirty occurrences of this setup are listed in the table below…
S&P Futures Post Two Consecutive Upside Gaps
05/07/09… S&P500 ??? next day
03/16/09… S&P500 +3.2% next day
12/31/08… S&P500 +3.2% next day
11/25/08… S&P500 +3.5% next day
10/14/08… S&P500 -9.0% next day
05/14/08… S&P500 +1.1% next day
04/16/08… S&P500 +0.1% next day
04/02/08… S&P500 +0.1% next day
03/19/08… S&P500 +2.4% next day
01/25/08… S&P500 +1.8% next day
12/24/07… S&P500 +0.1% next day
10/29/07… S&P500 -0.7% next day
09/27/07… S&P500 -0.3% next day
09/19/07… S&P500 -0.7% next day
08/23/07… S&P500 +1.2% next day
06/01/07… S&P500 +0.2% next day
04/17/07… S&P500 +0.1% next day
04/16/07… S&P500 +0.2% next day
03/09/07… S&P500 +0.3% next day
08/16/06… S&P500 +0.2% next day
08/15/06… S&P500 +0.8% next day
06/30/06… S&P500 +0.8% next day
05/26/06… S&P500 -1.6% next day
12/27/05… S&P500 +0.1% next day
11/18/05… S&P500 +0.5% next day
02/01/05… S&P500 +0.3% next day
10/04/04… S&P500 -0.1% next day
05/19/04… S&P500 +0.1% next day
09/03/03… S&P500 +0.2% next day
08/22/03… S&P500 +0.1% next day
08/19/03… S&P500 -0.2% next day
Note that in 23 out of the last 30 occurrences, or 77% of the time, the S&P500 closed higher the following session, significantly above the 55% at-any-time odds for a higher S&P close one day later.
Mind the Gap(s)
By Rennie on Thursday, May 7th, 2009 at 11:33 pmTraders sold aggressively into Thursday’s gap up open in S&P futures, the fifth upside gap in the last ten days (an important short-term development). Institutional participation was relatively low, with market internals reflecting only mild selling pressure. TICKscore settled at -18, Cumulative TICK -38,000. Volume was heavy, particularly on the NASDAQ where 3.2 billion shares traded hands, the heaviest one-day volume since last October.
Standard & Poors Oscillator is holding over 7 after closing above this level three days ago. If the SPX remains above 907.24 at Monday’s close, the two-week buy signal recently highlighted in my April 14th column will be triggered.
The OEX outperformed the SPX significantly Thursday, falling 1.03% vs. a 1.32% loss for the S&P500. It just missed being triggered, but historically when both indices fall 1%+ and the OEX outperforms the SPX by more than 0.3%, it’s a short-term bullish sign (see my January 22nd column)
The NASDAQ/NYSE Volume Ratio closed at a high 1.64, sending the 20-day moving average up to the 1.50 level. That triggers the longer-term bearish setup outlined this past Sunday, indicating the NDX is likely to be trading south of 1389 when the NASDAQ/NYSE Volume Ratio 20-day average falls back under 1.40. It’s important to keep in mind this is a long-term setup that could be in effect for weeks or even many months. It’s a good indication that speculative participants are clearly dominating trade, which does not have bullish implications, but that doesn’t necessarily mean this trend can’t persist a while longer.
OEX 419.49 remains a key level to monitor for Friday’s session. A break of that level would trigger the volatility-based sell setup outlined in Tuesday evening’s column.
Probably the most significant development for the short-term is the fact that S&P futures posted back-to-back upside gaps Wednesday and Thursday. A gap in this case is defined as simply an open above the previous session’s high. When you see this on two consecutive sessions, it’s a sign of strength for the next day (regardless of how the market closes). The last thirty occurrences of this setup are listed in the table below…
S&P Futures Post Two Consecutive Upside Gaps
05/07/09… S&P500 ??? next day
03/16/09… S&P500 +3.2% next day
12/31/08… S&P500 +3.2% next day
11/25/08… S&P500 +3.5% next day
10/14/08… S&P500 -9.0% next day
05/14/08… S&P500 +1.1% next day
04/16/08… S&P500 +0.1% next day
04/02/08… S&P500 +0.1% next day
03/19/08… S&P500 +2.4% next day
01/25/08… S&P500 +1.8% next day
12/24/07… S&P500 +0.1% next day
10/29/07… S&P500 -0.7% next day
09/27/07… S&P500 -0.3% next day
09/19/07… S&P500 -0.7% next day
08/23/07… S&P500 +1.2% next day
06/01/07… S&P500 +0.2% next day
04/17/07… S&P500 +0.1% next day
04/16/07… S&P500 +0.2% next day
03/09/07… S&P500 +0.3% next day
08/16/06… S&P500 +0.2% next day
08/15/06… S&P500 +0.8% next day
06/30/06… S&P500 +0.8% next day
05/26/06… S&P500 -1.6% next day
12/27/05… S&P500 +0.1% next day
11/18/05… S&P500 +0.5% next day
02/01/05… S&P500 +0.3% next day
10/04/04… S&P500 -0.1% next day
05/19/04… S&P500 +0.1% next day
09/03/03… S&P500 +0.2% next day
08/22/03… S&P500 +0.1% next day
08/19/03… S&P500 -0.2% next day
Note that in 23 out of the last 30 occurrences, or 77% of the time, the S&P500 closed higher the following session, significantly above the 55% at-any-time odds for a higher S&P close one day later.