What the Weekly S&P500 Chart Tells Us About Tomorrow’s Session
By
Rennie on Thursday, April 16th, 2009 at 9:35 pm
TICKscore closed at +51 Thursday as institutions remained better buyers. Interesting to note that the Cumulative TICKscore is in the process of challenging the highs from January. You may recall from the long-term chart that the cumulative line has been making a steady series of lower lows and lower highs for two years, reflecting consistently better selling among institutional investors. It would be noteworthy from a longer-term perspective if this trend is broken. TICKscore would need to add on approximately 110 from current levels to surpass the January highs.
Coming into this week, the S&P500 had already posted five consecutive higher weekly closes. That left the market vulnerable to a pullback this week. So far it hasn’t manifested as institutions have remained better buyers, but the market is once again looking overextended as we head into Friday’s options expiration. The table below lists each of the last thirty occurrences in which the S&P500 initially posted five consecutive higher closes on its weekly chart…
S&P500 Up Five Consecutive Weeks
04/09/09… S&P500 ??? one week later (currently +1.0%)
10/12/07… S&P500 -3.9% one week later
05/04/07… S&P500 +0.0% one week later
10/27/06… S&P500 -1.0% one week later
11/25/05… S&P500 -0.3% one week later
07/29/05… S&P500 -0.6% one week later
09/10/04… S&P500 +0.4% one week later
12/26/03… S&P500 +1.2% one week later
05/16/03… S&P500 -1.2% one week later
08/23/02… S&P500 -2.6% one week later
09/01/00… S&P500 -1.7% one week later
11/19/99… S&P500 -0.4% one week later
07/17/98… S&P500 -3.9% one week later
02/27/98… S&P500 +0.6% one week later
05/30/97… S&P500 +1.2% one week later
11/29/96… S&P500 -2.3% one week later
09/15/95… S&P500 -0.3% one week later
02/24/95… S&P500 -0.6% one week later
08/20/93… S&P500 +1.0% one week later
12/11/92… S&P500 +1.7% one week later
01/03/92… S&P500 -1.0% one week later
02/15/91… S&P500 -0.9% one week later
12/01/89… S&P500 -0.6% one week later
08/04/89… S&P500 +0.2% one week later
06/09/89… S&P500 -1.6% one week later
04/28/89… S&P500 -0.7% one week later
02/03/89… S&P500 -1.7% one week later
06/26/87… S&P500 -0.5% one week later
02/06/87… S&P500 -0.1% one week later
10/17/86… S&P500 -0.2% one week later
02/28/86… S&P500 -0.6% one week later
Note that in 22 out of 30 cases, or 73% of the time, the S&P posted a lower weekly close after five consecutive up weeks. That’s significantly above the 44% at-any-time odds for a lower weekly close one week later. And with the S&P500 currently up 1% for the week with only one session remaining, note that there was only one case out of thirty in which the S&P500 closed up more than 1.2% for the week after five consecutive up weeks. That indicates not only will today’s rally most likely not see follow-through on Friday, but the S&P could very well give back all of today’s gains.
New 20-day highs surged to over 2,000 on Thursday, reinforcing the notion that the market is short-term overextended. In recent times, whenever 20-day Highs have initially exceeded 1,000, the market?s upside potential has been limited over the next couple of sessions…
New 20-day Highs Exceed 1,000
04/16/09? S&P500 ??? two sessions later
04/09/09? S&P500 -1.8% two sessions later
04/02/09? S&P500 +0.1% two sessions later
03/23/09? S&P500 -1.1% two sessions later
03/18/09? S&P500 -3.3% two sessions later
02/06/09? S&P500 -4.8% two sessions later
01/09/09? S&P500 -2.1% two sessions later
12/31/08? S&P500 +2.7% two sessions later
12/16/08? S&P500 -3.1% two sessions later
12/08/08? S&P500 -1.2% two sessions later
11/04/08? S&P500 -10.0% two sessions later
09/19/08? S&P500 -5.3% two sessions later
09/08/08? S&P500 -2.8% two sessions later
09/02/08? S&P500 -3.2% two sessions later
08/15/08? S&P500 -2.4% two sessions later
08/08/08? S&P500 -0.5% two sessions later
08/05/08? S&P500 -1.5% two sessions later
07/30/08? S&P500 -1.9% two sessions later
07/23/08? S&P500 -1.9% two sessions later
06/05/08? S&P500 -3.0% two sessions later
05/21/08? S&P500 -1.1% two sessions later
05/12/08? S&P500 +0.4% two sessions later
05/06/08? S&P500 -1.5% two sessions later
04/30/08? S&P500 +2.0% two sessions later
04/24/08? S&P500 +0.5% two sessions later
04/16/08? S&P500 +1.9% two sessions later
04/01/08? S&P500 -0.1% two sessions later
03/24/08? S&P500 -0.7% two sessions later
02/26/08? S&P500 -1.0% two sessions later
01/30/08? S&P500 +2.9% two sessions later
12/26/07? S&P500 -1.3% two sessions later
Particularly noteworthy is that in only four cases out of thirty was the S&P up 1%+ two sessions later, while it was down 1%+ a total of twenty times.
What the Weekly S&P500 Chart Tells Us About Tomorrow’s Session
By Rennie on Thursday, April 16th, 2009 at 9:35 pmTICKscore closed at +51 Thursday as institutions remained better buyers. Interesting to note that the Cumulative TICKscore is in the process of challenging the highs from January. You may recall from the long-term chart that the cumulative line has been making a steady series of lower lows and lower highs for two years, reflecting consistently better selling among institutional investors. It would be noteworthy from a longer-term perspective if this trend is broken. TICKscore would need to add on approximately 110 from current levels to surpass the January highs.
Coming into this week, the S&P500 had already posted five consecutive higher weekly closes. That left the market vulnerable to a pullback this week. So far it hasn’t manifested as institutions have remained better buyers, but the market is once again looking overextended as we head into Friday’s options expiration. The table below lists each of the last thirty occurrences in which the S&P500 initially posted five consecutive higher closes on its weekly chart…
S&P500 Up Five Consecutive Weeks
04/09/09… S&P500 ??? one week later (currently +1.0%)
10/12/07… S&P500 -3.9% one week later
05/04/07… S&P500 +0.0% one week later
10/27/06… S&P500 -1.0% one week later
11/25/05… S&P500 -0.3% one week later
07/29/05… S&P500 -0.6% one week later
09/10/04… S&P500 +0.4% one week later
12/26/03… S&P500 +1.2% one week later
05/16/03… S&P500 -1.2% one week later
08/23/02… S&P500 -2.6% one week later
09/01/00… S&P500 -1.7% one week later
11/19/99… S&P500 -0.4% one week later
07/17/98… S&P500 -3.9% one week later
02/27/98… S&P500 +0.6% one week later
05/30/97… S&P500 +1.2% one week later
11/29/96… S&P500 -2.3% one week later
09/15/95… S&P500 -0.3% one week later
02/24/95… S&P500 -0.6% one week later
08/20/93… S&P500 +1.0% one week later
12/11/92… S&P500 +1.7% one week later
01/03/92… S&P500 -1.0% one week later
02/15/91… S&P500 -0.9% one week later
12/01/89… S&P500 -0.6% one week later
08/04/89… S&P500 +0.2% one week later
06/09/89… S&P500 -1.6% one week later
04/28/89… S&P500 -0.7% one week later
02/03/89… S&P500 -1.7% one week later
06/26/87… S&P500 -0.5% one week later
02/06/87… S&P500 -0.1% one week later
10/17/86… S&P500 -0.2% one week later
02/28/86… S&P500 -0.6% one week later
Note that in 22 out of 30 cases, or 73% of the time, the S&P posted a lower weekly close after five consecutive up weeks. That’s significantly above the 44% at-any-time odds for a lower weekly close one week later. And with the S&P500 currently up 1% for the week with only one session remaining, note that there was only one case out of thirty in which the S&P500 closed up more than 1.2% for the week after five consecutive up weeks. That indicates not only will today’s rally most likely not see follow-through on Friday, but the S&P could very well give back all of today’s gains.
New 20-day highs surged to over 2,000 on Thursday, reinforcing the notion that the market is short-term overextended. In recent times, whenever 20-day Highs have initially exceeded 1,000, the market?s upside potential has been limited over the next couple of sessions…
New 20-day Highs Exceed 1,000
04/16/09? S&P500 ??? two sessions later
04/09/09? S&P500 -1.8% two sessions later
04/02/09? S&P500 +0.1% two sessions later
03/23/09? S&P500 -1.1% two sessions later
03/18/09? S&P500 -3.3% two sessions later
02/06/09? S&P500 -4.8% two sessions later
01/09/09? S&P500 -2.1% two sessions later
12/31/08? S&P500 +2.7% two sessions later
12/16/08? S&P500 -3.1% two sessions later
12/08/08? S&P500 -1.2% two sessions later
11/04/08? S&P500 -10.0% two sessions later
09/19/08? S&P500 -5.3% two sessions later
09/08/08? S&P500 -2.8% two sessions later
09/02/08? S&P500 -3.2% two sessions later
08/15/08? S&P500 -2.4% two sessions later
08/08/08? S&P500 -0.5% two sessions later
08/05/08? S&P500 -1.5% two sessions later
07/30/08? S&P500 -1.9% two sessions later
07/23/08? S&P500 -1.9% two sessions later
06/05/08? S&P500 -3.0% two sessions later
05/21/08? S&P500 -1.1% two sessions later
05/12/08? S&P500 +0.4% two sessions later
05/06/08? S&P500 -1.5% two sessions later
04/30/08? S&P500 +2.0% two sessions later
04/24/08? S&P500 +0.5% two sessions later
04/16/08? S&P500 +1.9% two sessions later
04/01/08? S&P500 -0.1% two sessions later
03/24/08? S&P500 -0.7% two sessions later
02/26/08? S&P500 -1.0% two sessions later
01/30/08? S&P500 +2.9% two sessions later
12/26/07? S&P500 -1.3% two sessions later
Particularly noteworthy is that in only four cases out of thirty was the S&P up 1%+ two sessions later, while it was down 1%+ a total of twenty times.