Five White Candles

TICKscore closed at +28 Wednesday as institutions remained consistently better buyers. That pushed the Cumulative TICKscore line to within less than 5 points of its January high. A break of that high would represent the first ‘higher high’ from a longer-term perspective in nearly two years (see long-term chart).

Volume ticked higher Wednesday, but it’s noteworthy that NYSE volume remained below its 20-day average. That’s fairly unusual coming on a regularly scheduled Fed meeting. The last twenty times that NYSE volume came in below average on the day of a Fed meeting are listed in the table below. Note that in every case but one, the S&P reversed course over the next 1-2 days…

NYSE Volume Below 20day Avg on an FOMC Announcement Day
04/29/09… S&P Closes higher… ???
12/16/08… S&P Closes higher… Lower Close Next Day
10/29/08… S&P Closes lower… Higher Close Next Day
08/05/08… S&P Closes higher… Lower Close Two Days Later
01/30/08… S&P Closes lower… Higher Close Next Day
06/28/07… S&P Closes lower… Higher Close Two Days Later
05/09/07… S&P Closes higher… Lower Close Next Day
03/21/07… S&P Closes higher… Lower Close Next Day
08/08/06… S&P Closes lower… Higher close Two Days Later
05/10/06… S&P Closes lower… No higher close next 1-2 days
03/28/06… S&P Closes lower… Higher Close Next Day
11/01/05… S&P Closes lower… Higher Close Next Day
08/09/05… S&P Closes higher… Lower Close Next Day
02/02/05… S&P Closes higher… Lower Close Next Day
11/10/04… S&P Closes lower… Higher close Next Day
08/10/04… S&P Closes higher… Lower Close Next Day
08/12/03… S&P Closes higher… Lower Close Next Day
06/25/03… S&P Closes lower… Higher Close Next Day
12/10/02… S&P Closes higher… Lower Close Two Days Later
08/13/02… S&P Closes lower… Higher Close Next Day
03/19/02… S&P Closes higher… Lower Close Next Day

The fact that S&P futures settled above the opening for the fifth consecutive session also tilts the odds in favor of a close below today’s settlement within the next few sessions. The table below lists each of the last thirty separate occurrences in which S&P futures initially posted five consecutive white candlesticks (close>open). Note that in 26 cases, or 87% of the time, the S&Ps closed below the setup day within the next three sessions, well ahead of the 67% at-any-time odds for a lower S&P close within three days…

S&P Futures Post Five White Candlesticks
04/29/09… ???
04/06/09… Lower S&P close one session later
01/05/09… Lower S&P close two sessions later
10/26/07… Lower S&P close two sessions later
05/07/07… Lower S&P close one session later
04/18/07… Lower S&P close one session later
02/20/07… Lower S&P close one session later
02/05/07… Lower S&P close one session later
11/24/06… Lower S&P close one session later
10/25/06… Lower S&P close two sessions later
10/09/06… Lower S&P close two sessions later
09/14/06… No lower S&P close within three days
03/16/06… Lower S&P close two sessions later
01/09/06… Lower S&P close three sessions later
11/22/05… Lower S&P close three sessions later
07/13/05… Lower S&P close three sessions later
05/27/05… Lower S&P close one session later
02/16/05… Lower S&P close one session later
12/14/04… Lower S&P close two sessions later
10/29/04… No lower S&P close within three days
08/02/04… Lower S&P close one session later
05/17/04… No lower S&P close within three days
08/29/03… No lower S&P close within three days
08/20/03… Lower S&P close two sessions later
08/12/03… Lower S&P close one session later
03/21/03… Lower S&P close one session later
01/06/03… Lower S&P close one session later
09/10/02… Lower S&P close one session later
08/12/02… Lower S&P close one session later
05/17/02… Lower S&P close one session later
11/07/01… Lower S&P close three sessions later

Categories : Archived EOD Commentary, End-of-Day Commentary

 Print This Post