Clues from the Semiconductor Sector

The Nasdaq100 managed a decent gain Tuesday, but the influential semiconductor sector was a noticeable laggard. The SOX only managed a small 0.6% gain, less than half of the 1.3% rally for the NDX. In the table below I?ve listed every case since 2000 in which both the NDX and SOX closed up at least 0.5%, but the NDX more than doubled the gain of the SOX. Note that in 19 out of 22 instances, the Nasdaq closed at a lower level two sessions later. Even when the Nasdaq managed to continue moving higher, gains amounted to 0.5% or less in every case but one, suggesting limited upside potential over the next couple of days?

NDX & SOX +0.5% or more & NDX Doubles SOX Gain
03/31/09? Nasdaq ??? two days later
12/08/08? Nasdaq -0.2% two days later
12/02/08? Nasdaq -0.2% two days later
09/11/08? Nasdaq -3.8% two days later
07/25/08? Nasdaq -0.1% two days later
07/08/08? Nasdaq -1.7% two days later
10/05/07? Nasdaq +1.0% two days later (*)
08/24/07? Nasdaq -3.2% two days later
02/27/06? Nasdaq -0.1% two days later
04/25/05? Nasdaq -0.9% two days later
10/18/04? Nasdaq -0.3% two days later
07/27/04? Nasdaq +0.5% two days later
12/01/03? Nasdaq -1.9% two days later
09/18/03? Nasdaq -2.4% two days later
03/25/03? Nasdaq -0.4% two days later
04/08/02? Nasdaq -2.1% two days later
05/02/01? Nasdaq -2.0% two days later
05/01/01? Nasdaq -2.2% two days later
03/27/01? Nasdaq -9.9% two days later
01/23/01? Nasdaq -4.9% two days later
08/24/00? Nasdaq +0.1% two days later
06/30/00? Nasdaq -3.0% two days later
05/05/00? Nasdaq -6.6% two days later

Categories : Archived EOD Commentary, End-of-Day Commentary

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