NASDAQ Volume Hits its Highest Level of 2009, Equity Put/Call Ratio its Lowest Level of 2009
By
Rennie on Thursday, March 19th, 2009 at 2:59 am
Heavy volume on Wednesday, especially on the NASDAQ exchange where total volume hit its highest level of the year. TICKscore closed at +56, Cumulative TICK +80,500, keeping the 20-day moving average trending steadily higher. CBOE equity put/call ratio closed at its lowest level of the year at .54. Volume associated with advancing issues accounted for 89% of total big board volume, right on the heels of Tuesday’s 90% up volume session. As I recently discussed in my March 10th column, higher highs is very common after a 90%+ up volume session, and Wednesday was no exception. Key for Thursday is whether the S&P can keep that trend of higher highs intact by trading above Wednesday?s high at SPX 803.04. The table below lists all recent instances [since 1970] in which the S&P500 posted two consecutive higher highs immediately after a 90%+ up volume session. Note that in all seventeen occurrences, the second higher high was a short-term buying opportunity, and the S&P settled above the first day?s high (which would be Wednesday?s high in this case) either the same day or the next in every case?
Buy the S&P on the Second Higher High after 90%+ Up Volume
Buy 03/16/09 @ 758.29? S&P close +2.6% next day
Buy 03/12/09 @ 731.92? S&P close +2.6% same day
Buy 01/02/09 @ 910.32? S&P close +2.4% same day
Buy 11/26/08 @ 868.94? S&P close +2.2% same day
Buy 11/30/07 @ 1473.81? S&P close +0.5% same day
Buy 08/31/07 @ 1468.43? S&P close +0.4% same day
Buy 08/21/07 @ 1451.75? S&P close +0.9% next day
Buy 03/08/07 @ 1401.16? S&P close +0.1% same day
Buy 07/03/06 @ 1276.30? S&P close +0.3% same day
Buy 04/20/06 @ 1310.39? S&P close +0.1% same day
Buy 03/19/03 @ 866.94? S&P close +0.8% same day
Buy 01/06/03 @ 911.25? S&P close +2.0% same day
Buy 07/31/02 @ 909.81? S&P close +0.2% same day
Buy 11/02/87 @ 254.04? S&P close +0.7% same day
Buy 01/07/87 @ 253.99? S&P close +0.5% same day
Buy 08/24/82 @ 116.09? S&P close +1.3% next day
Buy 05/29/70 @ 75.44? S&P close +1.5% same day
Assuming for the moment today’s high holds, indications continue to point lower short-term. The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator surged above +200 Wednesday, reinforcing the market’s short-term overbought condition given that this indicator typically oscillates between +150 and -150 (see long-term chart). During particularly strong advances, the Nasdaq McClellan can approach and even exceed +200, which represents extreme territory as far as this indicator is concerned. While the sample size is small, it’s noteworthy that such high readings have consistently led to a flat-to-down Nasdaq over the next week as buying pressure fades and sellers gain the upper hand.
Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator closes over +190
03/18/09 Mcc +221… Nasdaq ??? one week later
01/02/09 Mcc +207… Nasdaq -3.2% one week later
12/08/08 Mcc +228… Nasdaq -3.5% one week later
11/04/08 Mcc +224… Nasdaq -11.1% one week later
04/05/04 Mcc +196… Nasdaq -2.4% one week later
11/01/02 Mcc +196… Nasdaq -1.0% one week later
08/22/02 Mcc +194… Nasdaq -8.3% one week later
10/11/01 Mcc +205… Nasdaq -4.3% one week later
04/18/01 Mcc +233… Nasdaq -0.9% one week later
01/03/01 Mcc +197… Nasdaq -4.5% one week later
06/02/00 Mcc +224… Nasdaq +0.1% one week later
09/23/98 Mcc +238… Nasdaq -3.5% one week later
05/05/97 Mcc +214… Nasdaq -0.9% one week later
12/18/87 Mcc +210… Nasdaq -1.3% one week later
NASDAQ Volume Hits its Highest Level of 2009, Equity Put/Call Ratio its Lowest Level of 2009
By Rennie on Thursday, March 19th, 2009 at 2:59 amHeavy volume on Wednesday, especially on the NASDAQ exchange where total volume hit its highest level of the year. TICKscore closed at +56, Cumulative TICK +80,500, keeping the 20-day moving average trending steadily higher. CBOE equity put/call ratio closed at its lowest level of the year at .54. Volume associated with advancing issues accounted for 89% of total big board volume, right on the heels of Tuesday’s 90% up volume session. As I recently discussed in my March 10th column, higher highs is very common after a 90%+ up volume session, and Wednesday was no exception. Key for Thursday is whether the S&P can keep that trend of higher highs intact by trading above Wednesday?s high at SPX 803.04. The table below lists all recent instances [since 1970] in which the S&P500 posted two consecutive higher highs immediately after a 90%+ up volume session. Note that in all seventeen occurrences, the second higher high was a short-term buying opportunity, and the S&P settled above the first day?s high (which would be Wednesday?s high in this case) either the same day or the next in every case?
Buy the S&P on the Second Higher High after 90%+ Up Volume
Buy 03/16/09 @ 758.29? S&P close +2.6% next day
Buy 03/12/09 @ 731.92? S&P close +2.6% same day
Buy 01/02/09 @ 910.32? S&P close +2.4% same day
Buy 11/26/08 @ 868.94? S&P close +2.2% same day
Buy 11/30/07 @ 1473.81? S&P close +0.5% same day
Buy 08/31/07 @ 1468.43? S&P close +0.4% same day
Buy 08/21/07 @ 1451.75? S&P close +0.9% next day
Buy 03/08/07 @ 1401.16? S&P close +0.1% same day
Buy 07/03/06 @ 1276.30? S&P close +0.3% same day
Buy 04/20/06 @ 1310.39? S&P close +0.1% same day
Buy 03/19/03 @ 866.94? S&P close +0.8% same day
Buy 01/06/03 @ 911.25? S&P close +2.0% same day
Buy 07/31/02 @ 909.81? S&P close +0.2% same day
Buy 11/02/87 @ 254.04? S&P close +0.7% same day
Buy 01/07/87 @ 253.99? S&P close +0.5% same day
Buy 08/24/82 @ 116.09? S&P close +1.3% next day
Buy 05/29/70 @ 75.44? S&P close +1.5% same day
Assuming for the moment today’s high holds, indications continue to point lower short-term. The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator surged above +200 Wednesday, reinforcing the market’s short-term overbought condition given that this indicator typically oscillates between +150 and -150 (see long-term chart). During particularly strong advances, the Nasdaq McClellan can approach and even exceed +200, which represents extreme territory as far as this indicator is concerned. While the sample size is small, it’s noteworthy that such high readings have consistently led to a flat-to-down Nasdaq over the next week as buying pressure fades and sellers gain the upper hand.
Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator closes over +190
03/18/09 Mcc +221… Nasdaq ??? one week later
01/02/09 Mcc +207… Nasdaq -3.2% one week later
12/08/08 Mcc +228… Nasdaq -3.5% one week later
11/04/08 Mcc +224… Nasdaq -11.1% one week later
04/05/04 Mcc +196… Nasdaq -2.4% one week later
11/01/02 Mcc +196… Nasdaq -1.0% one week later
08/22/02 Mcc +194… Nasdaq -8.3% one week later
10/11/01 Mcc +205… Nasdaq -4.3% one week later
04/18/01 Mcc +233… Nasdaq -0.9% one week later
01/03/01 Mcc +197… Nasdaq -4.5% one week later
06/02/00 Mcc +224… Nasdaq +0.1% one week later
09/23/98 Mcc +238… Nasdaq -3.5% one week later
05/05/97 Mcc +214… Nasdaq -0.9% one week later
12/18/87 Mcc +210… Nasdaq -1.3% one week later