Nasdaq Closes Down over 1%, SOX Triples NDX Loss

Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 3:2 margin on the NYSE Thursday. We’ll need to see a solid 2:1 negative session before the NYSE McClellan Oscillator will fall out of overbought territory. Semiconductors were notable underperformers, with the SOX settling down over 5%, more than tripling the percentage loss of the Nasdaq100. Historically, it hasn’t been a short-term positive sign to see the SOX underperform by such a wide margin. The table below lists every instance since 1994 (when the SOX began trading) in which the NDX settled down 1%+ and the SOX more than tripled the NDX loss (on a percentage basis). It’s occurred a total of 24 times, 20 of which led to a subsequently lower Nasdaq close within the next two sessions. That 83% win rate is significantly greater than the 59% at-any-time odds of a lower NDX close within two days…

NDX -1%+, SOX Triples NDX Percentage Loss
12/18/08… ???
07/21/06… No lower NDX close within two sessions
05/22/06… Lower NDX close one session later
08/11/04… Lower NDX close one session later
06/17/04… Lower NDX close two sessions later
12/04/02… Lower NDX close one session later
10/22/02… No lower NDX close within two sessions
10/03/02… Lower NDX close one session later
10/15/01… Lower NDX close two sessions later
09/26/01… Lower NDX close one session later
01/16/01… No lower NDX close within two sessions
11/27/00… Lower NDX close one session later
10/24/00… Lower NDX close one session later
10/17/00… Lower NDX close one session later
09/12/00… No lower NDX close within two sessions
07/26/00… Lower NDX close one session later
02/26/99… Lower NDX close two sessions later
06/10/98… Lower NDX close one session later
05/15/98… Lower NDX close one session later
02/27/98… Lower NDX close one session later
11/06/97… Lower NDX close one session later
10/24/97… Lower NDX close one session later
03/06/96… Lower NDX close two sessions later
02/29/96… Lower NDX close one session later
02/27/96… Lower NDX close two sessions later

Categories : Archived EOD Commentary, End-of-Day Commentary

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