Light Program Trading Activity Continues to Reflect an Absence of Institutional Support

TICKscore closed at a fairly unimpressive +11 Thursday, Cumulative TICK
+45,000. Note that the 20-day moving average of the Cumulative TICK remains in
a general downtrend. VXO fell 6%, enough to fulfill the short-term buy setup
noted in Wednesday evening's column. Most of the other trading setups
discussed recently are either off the board or will be shortly.

Program trading executed as principal, for member firms' own accounts, came in
at 35.1% of total program volume last week, surprisingly low considering the
dramatic 130-point weekly range for the S&P500. From a longer-term
perspective, it's noteworthy that we haven't seen any spikes into the 40%
neighborhood that typically coincide with longer-term bottoming periods (see
long-term chart). This is consistent with the relatively high NASDAQ/NYSE
Volume Ratio discussed Tuesday, the bearish Last Hour indicator and the long-
term downtrend of the cumulative TICKscore. Institutional investors are simply
not making a stand, and that's bad news for those hoping last week marked a
long-term bottom.

Categories : Archived EOD Commentary, End-of-Day Commentary

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