NASDAQ/NYSE Volume Ratio Hits its Second-Highest Level of the Year
By
Rennie on Wednesday, August 27th, 2008 at 11:30 pm
Major market averages followed through with another day of gains Wednesday,
fulfilling the recently discussed short-term bullish setups. TICKscore settled
at +6, Cumulative TICK +57,500. Breadth closed 3:1 positive, yet volume once
again hit a new low for the year. That’s a short-term negative sign heading
into the Thursday-Friday time frame. The table below lists every instance
since 1995 in which NYSE breadth closed better than 2:1 positive and big board
volume was the lightest of the past month. Note that in 22 out of 25 cases, or
88% of the time, the S&P posted a lower close within two days, significantly
greater than the 61% at-any-time odds of a lower S&P close within two
sessions…
Breadth 2:1 positive, Volume Lightest of Past Month
08/27/08… ???
08/22/08… Lower S&P close one day later
05/12/08… Lower S&P close one day later
12/24/07… Lower S&P close two days later
11/23/07… Lower S&P close one day later
08/24/07… Lower S&P close one day later
05/25/07… No lower close within two days
12/26/06… No lower close within two days
07/03/06… Lower S&P close one day later
05/26/06… Lower S&P close one day later
05/27/05… Lower S&P close one day later
05/09/05… Lower S&P close one day later
11/24/04… Lower S&P close two days later
08/27/04… Lower S&P close one day later
02/06/04… Lower S&P close one day later
04/14/03… Lower S&P close two days later
02/18/03… Lower S&P close one day later
08/26/02… Lower S&P close one day later
07/05/02… Lower S&P close one day later
02/11/02… Lower S&P close one day later
11/23/01… Lower S&P close two days later
11/24/00… Lower S&P close two days later
08/11/00… No lower close within two days
07/03/00… Lower S&P close one day later
05/28/99… Lower S&P close one day later
07/03/97… Lower S&P close one day later
If the S&P manages to hold above today’s settlement of 1281 at next Tuesday’s
close, it would be a sign of strength given today’s lopsided positive breadth.
But it’s questionable whether that can occur against a backdrop of tepid
institutional participation and heavy speculative participation. Note that the
NASDAQ/NYSE Volume Ratio closed at its highest levels in months Wednesday as
NASDAQ volume nearly doubled NYSE volume.
NASDAQ/NYSE Volume Ratio Hits its Second-Highest Level of the Year
By Rennie on Wednesday, August 27th, 2008 at 11:30 pmMajor market averages followed through with another day of gains Wednesday,
fulfilling the recently discussed short-term bullish setups. TICKscore settled
at +6, Cumulative TICK +57,500. Breadth closed 3:1 positive, yet volume once
again hit a new low for the year. That’s a short-term negative sign heading
into the Thursday-Friday time frame. The table below lists every instance
since 1995 in which NYSE breadth closed better than 2:1 positive and big board
volume was the lightest of the past month. Note that in 22 out of 25 cases, or
88% of the time, the S&P posted a lower close within two days, significantly
greater than the 61% at-any-time odds of a lower S&P close within two
sessions…
Breadth 2:1 positive, Volume Lightest of Past Month
08/27/08… ???
08/22/08… Lower S&P close one day later
05/12/08… Lower S&P close one day later
12/24/07… Lower S&P close two days later
11/23/07… Lower S&P close one day later
08/24/07… Lower S&P close one day later
05/25/07… No lower close within two days
12/26/06… No lower close within two days
07/03/06… Lower S&P close one day later
05/26/06… Lower S&P close one day later
05/27/05… Lower S&P close one day later
05/09/05… Lower S&P close one day later
11/24/04… Lower S&P close two days later
08/27/04… Lower S&P close one day later
02/06/04… Lower S&P close one day later
04/14/03… Lower S&P close two days later
02/18/03… Lower S&P close one day later
08/26/02… Lower S&P close one day later
07/05/02… Lower S&P close one day later
02/11/02… Lower S&P close one day later
11/23/01… Lower S&P close two days later
11/24/00… Lower S&P close two days later
08/11/00… No lower close within two days
07/03/00… Lower S&P close one day later
05/28/99… Lower S&P close one day later
07/03/97… Lower S&P close one day later
If the S&P manages to hold above today’s settlement of 1281 at next Tuesday’s
close, it would be a sign of strength given today’s lopsided positive breadth.
But it’s questionable whether that can occur against a backdrop of tepid
institutional participation and heavy speculative participation. Note that the
NASDAQ/NYSE Volume Ratio closed at its highest levels in months Wednesday as
NASDAQ volume nearly doubled NYSE volume.