Weak Breadth Triggers a One-Day Sell, Excessively Bearish Sentiment Triggers Longer-term Buy
By
Rennie on Sunday, July 6th, 2008 at 11:30 pm
The NYSE advance/decline ratio settled near 2:1 negative territory Thursday
despite the higher S&P close. This triggers the one-day sell setup recently
outlined in my June 23rd column.
TICKscore settled at -9 Thursday. This gauge of institutional buy/sell
pressure has only registered a positive reading twice in the last twenty-four
sessions. Cumulative TICK settled at -30,000, keeping the 20-day moving
average locked in a downtrend.
From an intermediate-term perspective, indications continue to suggest the
market’s near a multi-week low. Investors Intelligence reported over 40% bears
in its latest survey of newsletter writers, a reading not seen since 2002.
Historically, readings above 40% have led to a higher S&P by the time the
Bearish Consensus falls into more average territory. Each instance over the
last twenty years is noted below, beginning with the date when the survey
recorded over 40% bears and ending with the date when the Bearish Consensus
fell back under 35%…
Investors Intelligence Bearish Consensus >40%
07/03/08 Buy 1262.90…Sell ???
10/18/02 Buy 884.39…Sell 11/01/02… +1.9%
07/26/02 Buy 852.84…Sell 08/30/02… +7.4%
09/28/01 Buy 1040.94…Sell 10/12/01… +4.9%
04/20/01 Buy 1242.97…Sell 06/01/01… +1.4%
09/04/98 Buy 973.89…Sell 11/20/98… +19.5%
04/11/97 Buy 737.65…Sell 05/16/97… +12.5%
07/26/96 Buy 635.90…Sell 10/18/96… +11.8%
11/03/95 Buy 590.57…Sell 12/08/95… +4.6%
11/19/93 Buy 462.60…Sell 05/12/95… +13.6%
01/22/93 Buy 436.11…Sell 02/12/93… +1.9%
11/29/91 Buy 375.22…Sell 01/10/92… +10.6%
08/10/90 Buy 335.52…Sell 02/22/91… +9.0%
01/26/90 Buy 325.80…Sell 06/15/90… +11.4%
04/08/88 Buy 269.43…Sell 02/24/89… +6.6%
Also from a longer-term perspective, I’d note the New High-Low Index closed at
11% Thursday, and is on the verge of triggering a three-month buy setup on a
close below 10%. More on this if & when it’s triggered.
Weak Breadth Triggers a One-Day Sell, Excessively Bearish Sentiment Triggers Longer-term Buy
By Rennie on Sunday, July 6th, 2008 at 11:30 pmThe NYSE advance/decline ratio settled near 2:1 negative territory Thursday
despite the higher S&P close. This triggers the one-day sell setup recently
outlined in my June 23rd column.
TICKscore settled at -9 Thursday. This gauge of institutional buy/sell
pressure has only registered a positive reading twice in the last twenty-four
sessions. Cumulative TICK settled at -30,000, keeping the 20-day moving
average locked in a downtrend.
From an intermediate-term perspective, indications continue to suggest the
market’s near a multi-week low. Investors Intelligence reported over 40% bears
in its latest survey of newsletter writers, a reading not seen since 2002.
Historically, readings above 40% have led to a higher S&P by the time the
Bearish Consensus falls into more average territory. Each instance over the
last twenty years is noted below, beginning with the date when the survey
recorded over 40% bears and ending with the date when the Bearish Consensus
fell back under 35%…
Investors Intelligence Bearish Consensus >40%
07/03/08 Buy 1262.90…Sell ???
10/18/02 Buy 884.39…Sell 11/01/02… +1.9%
07/26/02 Buy 852.84…Sell 08/30/02… +7.4%
09/28/01 Buy 1040.94…Sell 10/12/01… +4.9%
04/20/01 Buy 1242.97…Sell 06/01/01… +1.4%
09/04/98 Buy 973.89…Sell 11/20/98… +19.5%
04/11/97 Buy 737.65…Sell 05/16/97… +12.5%
07/26/96 Buy 635.90…Sell 10/18/96… +11.8%
11/03/95 Buy 590.57…Sell 12/08/95… +4.6%
11/19/93 Buy 462.60…Sell 05/12/95… +13.6%
01/22/93 Buy 436.11…Sell 02/12/93… +1.9%
11/29/91 Buy 375.22…Sell 01/10/92… +10.6%
08/10/90 Buy 335.52…Sell 02/22/91… +9.0%
01/26/90 Buy 325.80…Sell 06/15/90… +11.4%
04/08/88 Buy 269.43…Sell 02/24/89… +6.6%
Also from a longer-term perspective, I’d note the New High-Low Index closed at
11% Thursday, and is on the verge of triggering a three-month buy setup on a
close below 10%. More on this if & when it’s triggered.