S&P Still Trading Above Seven-Day Ago Close Despite Five Lower Lows

The S&P500 posted its fifth consecutive session of lower lows Friday, noteworthy considering the S&P still managed to settle above its seven-day ago close. That struck me as unusual, and a quick check shows why – it hasn’t happened once since 1990. If we relax the parameters and only look for four consecutive lower lows and a close above its seven-day ago close, we find a total of a dozen occurrences since 1990…

S&P Four Lower Lows, Settles Above Seven-Day-Ago Close
05/08/08… S&P500 ???
03/31/08… S&P500 +3.8% one week later
08/10/06… S&P500 +2.0% one week later
04/29/05… S&P500 +1.3% one week later
12/09/04… S&P500 +1.2% one week later
12/12/01… S&P500 +1.1% one week later
11/12/98… S&P500 +3.1% one week later
06/12/98… S&P500 +0.2% one week later
05/08/98… S&P500 +0.1% one week later
01/23/95… S&P500 +0.6% one week later
10/22/93… S&P500 +1.0% one week later
05/08/91… S&P500 -2.6% one week later
03/04/90… S&P500 +0.9% one week later

While not a statistically significant sample, the results jibe with the ‘inside down week’ setup recently discussed in my May 7th column.

Categories : Archived EOD Commentary, End-of-Day Commentary

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