S&P -5% Intramonth, Ends the Month in Positive Territory

In the last seventy years, there have been 161 months in which the S&P fell 5% or more. This month marked the 162nd instance, and while the S&P has battled back near the unchanged mark for the month, it remains to be seen if the gains will stick. It’s noteworthy that out of the last 161 instances in which the S&P fell 5% or more ‘intramonth’, only sixteen times (or 10% of the time) did the S&P manage to close out the month in positive territory. On those few occasions when the S&P has rebounded from such a sharp selloff to finish positive on the month, the market’s typically trading higher three months later…

S&P -5% Intramonth, Ends the Month in Positive Territory
08/31/07… S&P +0.5% three months later
03/31/03… S&P +14.9% three months later
10/31/02… S&P -3.4% three months later
08/30/02… S&P +2.2% three months later
04/30/01… S&P -3.1% three months later
10/30/98… S&P +16.5% three months later
01/30/98… S&P +13.4% three months later
10/30/92… S&P +4.8% three months later
01/31/91… S&P +9.1% three months later
08/31/82… S&P +15.9% three months later
12/31/73… S&P -3.7% three months later
08/31/70… S&P +7.0% three months later
10/31/66… S&P +8.0% three months later
10/31/62… S&P +17.1% three months later
07/31/50… S&P +9.5% three months later
09/30/38… S&P +7.9% three months later

Despite breadth settling near 3:1 positive territory Thursday, we saw an expansion in new 52-week lows and a contraction in new 52-week highs. Also noteworthy is the ‘inside day’ posted by the OEX. Thursday marked only the ninth time since the inception of the OEX that the index posted an inside day despite advancing issues outnumbering decliners by at least a 2.5:1 ratio on the NYSE. In most cases, the OEX posted a subsequently lower close within the next two sessions…

OEX Inside Day on 2.5:1 Positive Breadth Session
03/20/08… ???
08/29/07… Lower close one session later
05/11/07… Lower close one session later
03/29/06… Lower close one session later
09/16/04… Lower close two sessions later
05/18/04… Lower close one session later
05/11/04… Lower close three sessions later
03/12/04… Lower close one session later
04/17/03… Lower close one session later

Categories : Archived EOD Commentary, End-of-Day Commentary

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