Poor Breadth Statistics during last Friday’s 1%+ Up Day for the Nasdaq a Short-term Negative

Stock indexes closed higher Monday on light institutional participation.
TICKscore settled at +1, cumulative Adjusted TICK closed in modestly negative
territory at -139. That's a fairly weak reading considering the S&P gained
0.6%. As I noted in my December 12th column, an Adjusted TICK reading under
+25 on a 0.5%+ up day for the S&P has had generally negative short-term
implications in recent years.

Also worth noting is that the Nasdaq100 (NDX) posted a gain of over 1% this
past Friday despite nearly 3:2 negative breadth on the NASDAQ exchange.
Typically, this type of solid gain without the support of breadth leads to a
short-term reversal. The table below lists the last thirty times this same
type of pattern has occurred. Note that 80% of the time, the NDX posted a
subsequently lower close 2-3 sessions later, compared with 60% at-any-time
odds for a lower NDX 2-3 days later...

NDX Closes Up 1%+, Nasdaq Breadth Negative
02/08/08... ???
01/09/08... Lower NDX close two sessions later
11/16/07... Lower NDX close two sessions later
08/06/07... Lower NDX close three sessions later
07/14/05... Lower NDX close two sessions later
05/13/05... No lower close 2-3 sessions later
03/07/05... Lower NDX close two sessions later
07/22/04... Lower NDX close two sessions later
07/22/03... Lower NDX close two sessions later
03/12/03... No lower close 2-3 sessions later
01/29/03... Lower NDX close two sessions later
09/09/02... Lower NDX close three sessions later
07/15/02... Lower NDX close three sessions later
07/11/02... No lower close 2-3 sessions later
07/03/02... Lower NDX close three sessions later
06/24/02... Lower NDX close two sessions later
06/12/02... Lower NDX close two sessions later
06/05/02... Lower NDX close two sessions later
06/04/02... Lower NDX close two sessions later
04/01/02... Lower NDX close two sessions later
10/18/01... No lower close 2-3 sessions later
07/11/01... No lower close 2-3 sessions later
03/22/01... Lower NDX close two sessions later
03/05/01... No lower close 2-3 sessions later
03/01/01... Lower NDX close two sessions later
02/23/01... Lower NDX close two sessions later
02/14/01... Lower NDX close two sessions later
01/26/01... Lower NDX close three sessions later
11/15/00... Lower NDX close two sessions later
10/26/00... Lower NDX close two sessions later
10/04/00... Lower NDX close two sessions later

Categories : Archived EOD Commentary, End-of-Day Commentary

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